STRATEGY ▶▶▶


of what’s needed. “We need 28-29 million tonnes in the EU, not including the UK, and only about 2 million tonnes of that is from domestically grown soybeans,” he says. “The rest – over half of the EU’s needs – is imported mostly from Bra- zil and Argentina as soybean meal. The remaining 35% roughly, stems from imported soybeans processed in the EU, again largely from Brazil and Argentina with a little from North America and Paraguay. At this point and for the fore- seeable future, the EU will have to continue to import soy- bean meal for livestock feed if we want to keep up current meat consumption.” However, Soya Europe President Matthias Krön notes that if we look at all of Europe, soybean production is growing and there is good potential for increasing acreage. He explains that soybeans are an excellent choice for crop farmers throughout Europe, especially in Ukraine and Serbia, be- cause there are now fewer crop protection products availa- ble and nitrogen fertilizer will continue to be very expen- sive. “Soybeans fix their own nitrogen and grow well in many regions without any products,” Krön observes. “The crop can also be grown in more northern countries, as corn is, and more farmers are learning how to grow soybeans. There are also subsidies available. Ten million tonnes are now grown in Europe and this will rise to 15 million tonnes in the next nine years, 80% of which goes into animal feed.” “Globally, the question of whether we have reached ‘peak’ meat consumption is very difficult to answer,” he says. “Con- sumption levels in China are similar to that of Europe now and Europe’s is decreasing. I advise everyone, don’t under- estimate European soybeans to meet our livestock feed needs. We will continue to use a mixture of both imports and domestic soybeans while aiming for more sustainable global soybean production everywhere.” To help European agriculture become more sustainable, FEFAC (the European Feed Manufacturers’ Federation) released its latest soy sourcing guideline document in February 2021.


Other countries Apart from China and the EU, Anand says that Thailand, Tur- key and Russia are major importers of South American soy- beans, along with Vietnam, Indonesia and Algeria. However, he adds that soybean meal for feed is in great demand in both Brazil and Argentina amid their soaring meat produc- tion for export, making it tough for soybean exporters to pro- cure the volumes they’d like to ship. He adds that Argentina’s weak economy, high export taxes and dual currency system are serious challenges to soybean export there in comparison with Brazil.


Soy cultivation areas in South America According to the scientists who published the Nature Sustainability paper, soybeans are grown in many areas of South America. They used both satellite imagery and site


verification to identify the main areas to be the Amazon Rainforest, the Atlantic Forest, the Cerrado scrubland, the Chaco dry forest, the Chiquitania savanna, the Pampas grassland, the Pantanal wetland and the Caatinga thorn- scrub forest. Their study reveals that soybean coverage in South America increased from 26.4 million hectares (65.2 million acres) in 2001 to 55.1 million hectares (136.2 million acres) in 2019, an area larger than California. For the past season of 2020-2021, according to the Brazilian government report entitled ‘Projections of Agribusiness Brazil 2020/21 to 2030/31’, soybean production is currently at about 135.4 million tonnes, the most ever produced. Pro- duction in Brazil is led by the states of Mato Grosso with 27%, Rio Grande do Sul with 15%, Paraná with 15%, Goiás with 10% and Mato Grosso do Sul with 8%. As stated in the report, factors such as production expansion, cattle herd size and land prices “show a clear trend of agricultural growth towards the North, mainly towards the states of Rondônia, Pará and Tocantins.” In ten years (2030/31), Bra- zilian soybean production is projected to reach 175.4 mil- lion tonnes, an increase of almost 30%. Domestic consump- tion of soybeans is expected to reach 59.1 million tonnes at that point but could rise as high as 66.8 million tonnes. “It should grow in the coming years to just above the con- sumption of corn, which is projected at 22.8% between 2021 and 2030,” the report’s authors state, “both products essential in the preparation of animal feeds.” Brazil’s soybean exports in 2030-2031 are projected to be 116.0 million tonnes. However, the US Department of Agri- culture (USDA) forecast is 121.5 million tonnes, which rep- resents 55.5% of the world’s soybean exports. USDA Eco- nomic Research Service researchers that include Senior Economist Fred Gale explain that (as indicated in their re- port USDA Agricultural Projections to 2030): “Chinese de- mand will drive continued growth in soybean trade during the next 10 years, as world soybean imports climb 46.2 mil- lion tonnes (26.7%) to 219.2 million tonnes.” Brazil is ex- pected to be the predominant soybean exporting country until 2030. In addition, the dynamics of world production have changed a great deal in recent decades. In a new book called Crop Physiology: Case Histories for Major Crops, the authors note that in the early 1990s, the US accounted for half of global soybean production, while Brazil and Argenti- na produced about a quarter. “The share of global soybean production amongst the three countries has changed dras- tically during the past three decades,” they state, “with Bra- zil and Argentina together now accounting for half of glob- al production and the US producing a third.” There are a few factors that may affect world soybean production for ani- mal feed, chief among them being the success of plant- based food products and world population. The United Na- tions projects world population to reach 9.7 billion by 2050.


▶ POULTRY WORLD | No. 10, 2021 15


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