COUNTRY FILE ▶▶▶


stricting the economic possibilities for pig farmers. Even in the fourth quarter of 2021, no solution for that problem appears to be on the horizon.


4 5 Year


2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020


Germany


x1,000 tonnes 2,932 3,072 2,979 2,858 2,903 2,742


Index:


(2010 = 100) 100.0 104.8 101.6 97.5 99.0 93.5


x1,000


Reduced pig meat production One would have expected that because of the declin- ing pig slaughter, pig meat production would have


fallen at a similar percentage. That was not the case, as Table 3 shows. The reason is the temporary shutdown of the abat- toirs and high slaughter weights of hogs when the abattoirs started to work again. A comparison with Spain reveals completely different dynam- ics. Even though Germany surpassed Spain’s pig meat pro- duction in 2020 by 78,000 tonnes, it is obvious that in 2021 it will lose the top position. While pig meat production in Ger- many fell by 366,000 tonnes (6.7%) between 2015 and 2020, it increased by almost 1.7 million tonnes (49.1%) in Spain.


Decreasing pig meat exports For years, the top position in global pig meat exports was disputed between the US, Germany and Spain.


While Germany was still in the leading position in 2017, it lost


Table 4 – The development of German and Spanish pig meat exports between 2015 and 2020.


Spain Index:


tonnes (2010 = 100) 1,755 2,031 2,129 2,197 2,472 2,982


100.0 115.7 121.3 125.2 140.9 169.9


Source: AMI Marktbilanz Vieh und Fleisch, various editions; MAPA 2021..


Figure 2 - The development of the value of pork exports of the five leading exporting countries between 2017 and 2020.


4 5 6


1 2 3


0 2017 2018 2019 Source: A.S. Kauer based on data of www.weltexporte.de/schweinefleisch-exporte. 2020


Denmark Germany


USA Spain Canada Netherlands


> 1.177 > 1.041 > 850 > 661 > 431 < 240


D > < E


it not only regarding the volume (Table 4) but also regarding the value of exports in 2020 (Figure 2) to Spain. One reason for Spain’s success is that it signed veterinary con- tracts with several Asian countries at a much earlier stage than Germany. It profited in particular from the fast increase of China’s pig meat imports, similar to the US and Canada, a market that was no longer open for Germany because of the ASF outbreaks. In 2015, Germany was still stuck in traditional trade relations with other EU member countries. Between 2015 and 2020, the share of exports to other countries increased from 27.3% to only 37.1%; in Spain, in contrast, it increased from 29.1% to 60.2%. In 2020, China alone took 1.3 million tonnes (45.1%) of Spain’s pig meat exports. Figure 2 documents Germany’s abrupt fall from the top posi- tion in 2017 to rank 3 in 2020. While it shared 16.0% in the value of global pig meat exports in 2017, the share was only 12.8% in 2020. In contrast, Spain’s share increased from 13.1% to 17.4% across the same period.


Perspectives This analysis documented the massive decline of Germany’s pig inventories, pig slaughter, pig imports, pig meat produc- tion and exports between 2018 and 2020. Those years im- pressively revealed the fragility of the German production system. This large system of mass production – based on high feed, piglet and finisher pig imports – only worked as long as exports of the surplus over the domestic demand were possi- ble. As soon as problems showed up there, the whole system got into economic difficulties. In addition, the discussion regarding animal welfare and the environmental impacts of intensive livestock production have become major challenges. Even in the centres of animal pro- duction, a transformation of the present production system is demanded. That shows that parts of the present problems are home-made. Blinded by economic success, stakeholders too long ignored the changing attitude in society regarding in- tensive animal production and high meat consumption as one source of global warming and climate change. Denmark shows that another form of pig meat production is possible, a system which – because of the high standards regarding ani- mal welfare, sustainability and meat quality – is not only ac- cepted by Danish society but is at the same time successful on the global pig meat market. Considering the decreasing domestic per capita consumption of pig meat, falling export volumes and growing competition from plant-based meat substitutes, a further decline of Ger- many’s pig inventories, pig meat production and exports can be expected.


* The author is professor emeritus of the University of Vechta, Germany, and visiting professor at the University of Veterinary Medicine Hannover, Germany.


8 ▶ PIG PROGRESS | Volume 37, No. 10, 2021


Billion €


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