Profile
Prior to founding Glowlit Guy Soreq worked in positions spanning the supply chain including purchasing, distri- bution, and sales of raw mate- rials. Soreq completed a MBA from Columbia University, and worked as a management consultant conducting market analysis for multinational companies, followed by a role at a multinational producer of feed additives.
What will be the long-term consequences of this impact on the feed additive market? Already we see that COVID-19 is eliminating the old patterns of seasonality that our industry was accustomed to in terms of an- nual planning. This lack of predictability creates a series of chal- lenges for companies as they try to plan feedstock purchases, operating rates and sales targets. BASF CEO Martin Brudermuller rightly pointed out that planning in our current environment is virtually impossible. BASF has stated in a press release that they will not give any financial guidance for the remainder of 2020. Navigating this new normal requires a great deal of organisa- tional agility. Given the speed at which prices are changing, pur- chasing managers and sales executives need to shift from annu- al or quarterly planning to weekly check-ins in order to track specific products. Companies need to plan ahead while also having the flexibility to make decisions based on what the market looks like right now – e.g. “Do I buy an extra two months’ worth of feedstock this week or do I wait?” In the new normal, this is how you reach the end of the year with a healthy balance sheet.
Which additives are expected to experience notable growth in the upcoming years? The problem isn’t really overall growth in price. As one colleague in the industry once said to me, “prices go up and prices go down. It’s the speed of the price fluctuation that makes it extremely diffi- cult to plan our purchasing, and this can leave us with too much or too little stock, both of which carry a heavy price tag.”
Take vitamin B3 (Niacin/Nicotinamide) for example. With 20% of the global capacity coming from India, the shutdown in the country has brought additional pressure to the B3 market. We’re also seeing supply issues of vitamin B3’s precursor, 3-Meth- ylpyridine. With the capacity of both the precursor and vitamin B3 concentrated among several main suppliers, any disruption can lead to panic buying and overstocking. The price may very well come down, but the problem is the speed with which it went up in the first place. The result of this volatile price trend is that customers are left without an ability to plan forward, and this is where having a real-time day-to-day view of the market becomes critical.
How does Glowlit ensure that prices remain up to date? At Glowlit, not only is it important that prices are up to date, but it is critical that rapid shifts in price are reflected in an accurate and timely manner. Glowlit’s algorithm continuously monitors the level of interest in a given product all around the world across the entire Glowlit community. Once the system begins to detect a shift, an alert is sent to all users who have opted in to receive notifications for that product. More users then enter, adding additional data into the system, creating a reflection of current market prices across multiple supply chains around the world in a very short timespan, even as prices are changing. This gives our Glowlit community the opportunity to review their supply chain before the market shifts beneath them, and consequently, the ability to make decisions from a position of strength.
▶ ALL ABOUT FEED | Volume 28, No. 5, 2020 11
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