But federal, state regulations are driving up engine unit costs – or driving out the option altogether
Written by Mark Rowh
certain that for the near future, diesel engines will continue filling the workhorse roles they’ve held for decades. But at a premium. Meanwhile, EV progress has accelerated in some parts
A
of the country, driven by policies or legislation aimed at significant reductions in emissions. In New York, for example, recently enacted legislation stipulates that all students be transported in a zero-emission vehicle by 2035. The New York law also requires that by July 2027, all new vehicles purchased or leased by and for school districts must be zero-emissions. On a national level, the big news in transportation regs is
the latest iteration of U.S. Environmental Protection Agen- cy emission standards. Once implemented, the newest federal regulations will require substantial reductions in nitrogen oxide emissions starting with model year 2024. Limits will become even more stringent in 2027. Propane and compressed natural gas (CNG) engines
already meet 2027 requirements, but the situation is more challenging for diesel. Over the next few years, manufacturers will need to develop additional pollution control features. In the process that will greatly increase the cost of diesel engines. While manufacturers are not publicly disclosing cost
estimates, anecdotal evidence from fleet operators shows an expensive story unfolding. One prediction by an industry insider is that a medium-duty diesel engine could see a price increase of $20,000 to $25,000 by 2027. Additional warranty obligations may also be expected, including the need for more expensive oil. In addition, concerns have arisen that as their focus on other types
42 School Transportation News • AUGUST 2023
world with 100-percent electric school buses may be coming, but it’s not here yet. This is still a time of dependence on the tried-and-true principles of internal combustion, and it seems
of engines increases, manufacturers will cut back on the volume of diesels produced. “With the pending emission requirements, we will no
doubt see an increase in diesel engine costs,” said trans- portation consultant Robert Pudlewski, who is also the technical editor for School Transportation News. “The OEMs respond to market demands. Whether or not they cut back will be determined by the capability of the elec- tric power vehicles filling everyone’s needs.” Pudlewski also pointed out that for most districts, the acquisition of electric buses is made possible by state and federal grants or large voter-approved bonds. Meanwhile, diesel vehicles are largely purchased with district budgetary funds. When the availability of funds is factored in with the much higher costs of EVs, diesel vehicles should continue to represent a more affordable option even with engines that have become more costly. Where allowed, that is. About a dozen states follow California Air Resource
Board (CARB) regulations on medium- and heavy-duty vehicles. While all school buses in California won’t need to be fully zero emissions until 2045, the state has the strictest emissions standards that are resulting in many school districts being forced to end their purchases of diesel school buses because manufacturing them for those states is becoming cost prohibitive, though CARB struck a deal last month with truck and engine man- ufacturers to curb further emissions increases until manufacturing can catch up. All factors considered, many districts are still an-
ticipating heavy reliance on diesel buses. At Warsaw Community Schools in Indiana, diesel engines will continue to play a significant role in the future, said Fleet Manager John Ryan. A major factor is the district’s location in a compliant air quality zone, meaning it only
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