AIR CARG O WEEK
THE AMERICAS
MICHAEL COX, PRESIDENT, AVIACARGO, CONSIDERS WHAT LIES AHEAD FOR AIRFREIGHT IN THE AMERICAS
ACW: What do you think are the principal market trends currently shaping the air cargo landscape in the United States, and how are they expected to evolve over the next 12-18 months? E-commerce is undeniably the dominant force across most global markets, not just in the US. A key factor driving this in the US is the $800 de minimis rule, which allows goods valued at or below $800 to be imported duty- and tax-free, without detailed customs procedures. These shipments must be for personal use, not commercial.
In
essence, the rule simplifies low-value imports by waiving tariffs and paperwork - though this status quo could change.” Regulatory scrutiny is increasing, and I believe capacity will
become a growing concern as we move forward. A decline in inbound tourism to the US from certain regions has allowed larger carriers with diverse fleets to adjust aircraft types to better match demand on specific routes. In terms of market trends, I believe we’ll continue to see strong growth
Michael Cox, President Aviacargo
in the pharmaceutical sector, which remains a key driver. Additionally, there’s increasing momentum in the movement of specialised products, both of which are shaping the future of air cargo demand. Fuel costs remain a critical factor with the potential to influence
all market trends. In today’s complex geopolitical climate - marked by regional conflicts, trade tensions, and shifting alliances - energy prices are increasingly volatile. These dynamics not only affect operating costs but also shape sourcing strategies, supply chain resilience and overall market behaviour.
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ACW: How are the major US carriers leveraging strategic alliances and interline agreements to update cargo? I believe major carriers will increasingly prioritise Special Prorate Agreements (SPAs) and interline partnerships over traditional alliances. These arrangements offer greater flexibility and help balance capacity more effectively across networks. One of the key advantages of interline agreements is that they allow an airline to expand its network and access new markets without deploying its own aircraft. This enables broader destination offerings. However, the trade-off is reduced control over cargo transfers, which can introduce operational challenges. Normally of course you would find with a weakening dollar it
would entice people to come to the United States but because of the geopolitical situation right now it’s not happening in the same way as before. This means bellyhold capacity, cargo space on passenger aircraft is growing 3% to 4% annually yet cargo demand is only growing at 1% to 2% percent annually so that is one issue. Freighters are inherently
less fuel-efficient
ACW: How is regulatory pressure particularly around emissions and sustainability impacting operational decisions
for cargo focused airlines operating in
North America in your opinion? The whole world is still in the position that there isn’t actually enough SAF to go around, so emissions and sustainability impacts are difficult to assess. Of course there will be more flights and at the same time as airlines look at re-fleeting there is going to be greater analysis on things like fuel burn and emissions and the ability to operate using alternative fuel sources. After the actual aircraft purchase the next biggest spend for an
airline is the fuel to operate it so that’s always going to be very high up on their list of priorities. Regulatory pressures are different around the world and while that
remains the case fuel usage and potential alternatives will likely be the top focus for operational decisions.
ACW: Which US regions or gateways do you consider it is demonstrating the strongest cargo volume growth and what is underpinning their performance? This is a great question, and the answer for the US is likely quite different from other regions due to the country’s extensive trucking infrastructure. Passenger
flights in the US are heavily
centred around major hubs, with narrowbody aircraft transporting passengers to and from these central locations. As a result, road freight plays a critical role in the US air cargo ecosystem, ensuring cargo is efficiently moved to and from these hubs. Los Angeles, San Francisco, New York, Chicago, Miami and so on
all need feed from the extensive road truck network while freighters go into different airports which are not necessarily the passenger orientated locations. And within that trucking network there are many regional specialists such as those who just concentrate on the eastern seaboard or
just the west coast. Trucking really is
extensive in the US and has massive interstate system network. It’s not like trucking say in Africa which is entirely different. In the US there are also companies capitalising on e-commerce
and tax rates within different states. If I bought a phone in New York and it’s being delivered to me in New York I must pay New York sales tax. If an e-commerce operator is based in a state like Delaware, where
than passenger
aircraft, largely because all revenue must be generated from cargo alone. Additionally, the supply of new freighter aircraft is limited, which restricts airlines’ ability to scale freighter capacity in response to demand. On top of that, product mix becomes a key consideration. This is where leveraging alliances and interline agreements can play a vital role—they’re an essential part of the broader strategy. Network connectivity is important, but the type of connectivity
needed depends on the kind of operator you are. An integrator with a dedicated freighter network has very different requirements compared to a mainline carrier offering only belly capacity. Load factors play a key role in shaping those needs. Just last week, we had a 20-tonne freight backlog at JFK - but whether that will be the case in two weeks is anyone’s guess. Predicting trends is becoming increasingly difficult. People used to laugh when I was asked questions like this, and I’d
respond by saying: ‘I don’t have a crystal ball.’ But it was true then, and it still holds today - I stand by what I said all those years ago.
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there’s no sales tax, they can purchase goods from a US company and have them shipped to a Delaware address - avoiding for example New York’s 8.875% sales tax. These operators often consolidate shipments in tax-free states and then transport them to cities like Philadelphia, Washington DC or New York. It’s no surprise, then, that e-commerce activity is growing in these regions, whether the goods are moved by truck or air.
ACW: How are fluctuations in international trade
volumes and tariffs, here’s a weird one, influencing trans-pacific and transatlantic cargo flows? I believe this is just the beginning. The issue with tariffs is that they inevitably cause disruptions. These hikes tend to trigger sudden surges followed by de-escalations, which leads to a highly reactionary environment. This puts a strain on capacity - especially in ocean freight - because when significant tariffs are imposed, operators relocate
equipment accordingly. But if the situation changes
overnight, that equipment ends up in the wrong place, making it difficult to restart operations efficiently. Airfreight is generally more adaptable in these scenarios compared to ocean freight. Airfreight is easier because the difference is how long does it take
a ship to cross the Atlantic and cross the Pacific and how long does it take an airline to position an aircraft. Shippers seem to be taking a
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