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STRUCK ROUTES, SURGING RATES


BY Oscar SARDINAS


WHEN the US and Israel launched strikes on Iran on 28th February 2026, the shockwaves through global aviation were immediate. Where one of the world’s busiest aviation corridors should have been—a dense web of aircraft linking Europe, Asia and the Gulf— there was a hole. And while no aircraft serving Miami, Bogotá or São Paulo flies over Tehran, the fallout did not stay on the other side of the world. This conflict triggered airspace closures across Iran, Iraq, Israel,


Kuwait, Qatar, Bahrain, the UAE and Saudi Arabia. The European Union Aviation Safety Agency (EASA) extended its conflict zone information bulletin to cover all altitudes across those regions, advising operators not to operate there due to risk from missiles, air defence systems and military activity. Middle Eastern carriers alone account for 13.6 percent of global air cargo capacity, according to IATA. Their grounding was—and remains—felt across global networks.


The first to go dark The first carriers to suspend operations were some of those Americas’ shippers depend on most. Emirates SkyCargo froze bookings, Qatar Airways Cargo halted operations entirely, FedEx suspended all flights to and from eleven countries in the region, and Cargolux stopped accepting Middle East-bound freight, leaving only Muscat operational. What began as a temporary suspension is taking on a more


structural character as weeks pass. Qatar Airways relocated aircraft to storage facilities outside the country; flight-tracking data shows around 20 widebodies moved to Teruel Airport in Spain, one of Europe’s largest aircraft storage sites. Emirates


was operating at roughly 60 percent of pre-conflict levels, Etihad at around 15 percent. Global capacity dropped 18 percent week- on-week, with Asia–Middle East and South Asia–Europe corridors down nearly 40 percent.


The long way round With Gulf airspace severely restricted and Russian airspace still closed, carriers were left with two main rerouting options: north via the Caucasus and Afghanistan, or south via Egypt, Saudi Arabia and Oman. Both alternatives added two to four hours of flight time, reduced payload and introduced costly refuelling stops. Load factors on Asia–Europe routes had already been around


80 percent before the strikes. Removing ten percent of available capacity from an already tight market sent rates spiralling, with analysts warning that pricing could double—or even triple—on the most affected routes.


Hormuz Airspace closures were not the only challenge. The Strait of Hormuz, which handles roughly 20 percent of global oil shipments, was effectively closed to Western-aligned commercial shipping following the strikes. Daily ocean freight diversions surged more than 360 percent, with a record 2,363 vessel diversions in a single 24-hour period on 5th March. This removed the main relief valve. Shippers who might otherwise


have switched cargo from air to sea during a rate spike had nowhere to go. The closure also pushed Brent crude past US$100 per barrel, driving fuel surcharges across every airfreight lane.


www.aircargoweek.com


Where the Americas feel it No freighter flying between Miami and São Paulo had to cross Doha, yet the impact arrived indirectly via alternative routes. Vessels diverted around the Cape of Good Hope absorbed capacity normally used for Asia–Latin America services, while ocean freight rates into Santos, Brazil spiked sharply, further pressuring shippers considering airfreight alternatives. A particular


vulnerability emerged on the pharmaceuticals


and retail corridor between India and the US East Coast, which normally transited the Middle East. Miami, as the primary gateway for life sciences cargo moving between Latin America and North America, felt that squeeze directly.


What operators were watching EASA’s conflict zone bulletin has been extended repeatedly since its initial issue on 28th February, remaining valid until 27th March. Qatar Airways had targeted a full network restart from 28th March as Qatari airspace reopened, but a brief pause in hostilities created conditions for only a partial


reopening. Aircraft still


needed repositioning, crews required rest, and timetables had to be rebuilt. For operators, the message was clear: stay close to forwarders,


postpone longer-term rate tenders, and manage uncertainty. For carriers in the Americas, the coming weeks would


demonstrate how quickly a disrupted network could recover. With the Strait of Hormuz likely closed for the foreseeable future and widebody jets parked in a Spanish desert, the pressure on airfreight lanes was far from easing.


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