Industry Forecast Continued from pg 11

consolidated sector forecast for 2021 is $3.11 Billion, or 8% growth over 2020 levels.

Industrial Gas Turbine Like the

Aerospace sector, North

American Industrial Gas Turbine sales were impacted by a number of factors, but in this case, the majority of the factors impairing growth are directly attributable to the pandemic. In last year’s forecast, 2020 was noted as being the last year of new turbine installation decline. Though 2020 data is yet to be published concerning new turbine builds, it is believed that the industry fell short of the targeted 361 power turbine installations. Demand for spares was also off from

last year’s projections, as the pandemic impacted both demand-side and supply- side performance.

With Shelter in

Place orders in effect and temporary closures of businesses, commercial and retail energy consumption was down by over 6% globally. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) recently reported that the impact to consumption in the United States was down by a lesser magnitude.

Per the

EIA’s December 8th report, overall US consumption was down by 3.9%. Consumption in the US residential

sector was actually up by 1.5% due to Shelter in Place orders and companies adapting to what is becoming the new telecommuting norm.

This was offset

by declines in the commercial and industrial sectors of 5.9% and 8.8% respectively.

These declines were

contributing factors to softening demand for investment castings to support both new engine builds and MRO. Though much of the US industrial

and commercial bases have returned to varying levels of operation, further recovery is being throttled by the timing and availability of the newly approved

12 ❘ January 2021 ®

coronavirus vaccines. The EIA’s current demand forecast for the US reflects an overall 1.5% increase in 2021, with overall US demand returning to 2019 levels in 2022. This data supports sales figures

reported by contributing ICI Members, which puts 2020 sales of IGT components sourced in North America at $690 Million, down by 8.7% when compared to the prior year’s performance. Looking forward to 2021, OEM plans for the installation of 400 gas turbines are to be viewed with scrutiny

as the timing of economic recovery is uncertain. Though recovery is expected, its magnitude and timing are in question. Based on input from ICI Members, 2021 North American IGT investment casting sales are expected to near $700 Million, ultimately returning to pre-pandemic levels by 2022.

Automotive Last year’s forecast for 2020 depicted the year in moderate decline, approximately 2%. Since that time, North American Manufacturing endured a three month

North America

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