2 >> 1


Issue 1 2020 - FBJ Ireland


riding a wave of popular discontent over


the economy, which might seem strange when experts such as Davy are predicting growth of 5.5% in 2020 on the back of strong foreign investment and some clarity at last over Brexit. The Economic and Social


Research Institute (ESRI) puts growth for the previous year, 2019, at 6% saying that the large increase in tax receipts and the continued strong performance of


the labour market means


that the underlying economy is performing well. It adds that Ireland’s persistent growth “is remarkable given the strong headwinds observed in 2019, the uncertainty about the Brexit process and the moderation in global conditions”. However, as is oſten the case,


strong growth on paper doesn’t necessarily filter down to the woman or man on the street, notwithstanding an expected 3.2% rise in consumer spending


in 2020. Memories of the recession of ten years ago are still raw and many people certainly don’t feel better off, whatever the economists are telling them. Much also depends on


where you sit in the economy. Multinationals and tech companies are doing well and increasing their headcounts but indigenous companies are growing much more slowly, says Davy. Other analysts


Focus-Economics panellists


project GDP to grow 3.3% in 2020, which is up 0.2 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and 2.9% in 202 – and also very respectable by the standards of most other European countries. All these predictions were made before the full extent of the ‘corona crisis’ was know, although the pahrma sector could conceivably gain from it. Whether there is any more


are more


pessimistic. Focus-Economics sees a slowdown this year with weaker trade during the Brexit transition period and potential overheating due to diminishing spare capacity and a tight labour market. Even the optimistic ESRI says that, with Brexit uncertainty due to drag on over 2020 and beyond, it expects growth to slow in 2020 to 3.3%. The European Commission, in its Winter 2020 Interim Economic Forecast, suggests a similar figure, of 3.6% in 2020 and 3.2% in 2021.


certainty over Brexit is of course a moot point. While the UK’s general direction of travel in this respect is known following Boris Johnson’s victory in the election there in December, no one yet knows if the country will negotiate a free trade deal with the EU by the end of the transition period in December or what, if any, trade simplifications will be put in place. The European Commission


report says that Brexit has led to smaller and medium sized firms postponing investment decisions. However, the Irish


Philip Stephenson, chairman of the Davies Turner Group says that there has been a welcome upliſt in DT Ireland’s turnover over the last couple of months, mainly thanks to an increase in airfreight shipments. So far the approach of Brexit has


done DT Dublin no harm, he says, adding: “One or two companies have even transferred their business there from London.” The big question he says is


that, with a final deal supposedly to be thrashed out aſter 11 ‘transitional’ months following the UK’s departure from EU on 31 January: “Are the politicians likely to reach agreement on the details of exporting and importing procedures let alone using the UK as a landbridge or transit country for Ireland? And, if they do, how close will it be to the deadline and will a further transitional period be needed whilst the nuts and bolts changes necessary to make it all work smoothly and to discourage smugglers or terrorists, are implemented by freight forwarders, shippers or HMRC?” Stephenson says that these


continuing uncertainties limit the amount of detailed preparation that can be done now, apart from the important step forward DTI has taken in AEO accreditation. Davies Turner Ireland opened


as a branch of the UK-based forwarder in April 1997 and registered as a company there in 2008. The Dublin Office covers all Ireland, with the support of Davies Turner’s regional partners.


There is no separate arrangement for Northern Ireland which is also served direct by DT hubs throughout the UK. DT Ireland looks aſter


customers and freight controlled by other Davies Turner branches in Britain or its overseas partners but DT Ireland also generates business in its own right with customers based in Dublin and the rest of Ireland. There are regular two-way, daily


services to and from Dartford, Bristol and Birmingham. (The Birmingham service is handled in conjunction with DT Ireland’s landlord, IEC, which operates its own eastbound road export service twice weekly to the West Midlands).


DT also operates


through services from, for example, Turkey to Dublin using the UK as a land-bridge. It also carries and customs clears growing volumes of airfreight. The business in Ireland has


recently been showing real growth. Revenue was well up over the last couple of months mainly thanks to an increase in air cargo exports. However, Ireland remains a


really competitive market, says Stephenson, who points out: “We may not always be able to compete with the multinationals in Ireland on price but we do win out through the quality service we provide.” DTI was recently granted


Authorised Economic Operator AEO (Type C) status by Irish Revenue, giving the forwarder the full benefits of customs simplified procedures.


It comes less than ten years


aſter the UK parent company achieved full certification (Type F) for all Group services including air freight, ocean freight, overland trailer or intermodal services, customs warehousing, supply chain management and project forwarding. Stephenson says that the


process for achieving accreditation was if anything more rigorous in Ireland than in the UK with the forwarder having to produce large folders and files of documentary evidence to back up information submitted on the application form. The effort should prove though.


worthwhile, Obtaining


AEO will benefit Davies Turner Ireland and its customers through lower customs risk scores, priority treatment for any physical controls or examination that are conducted, easier access to simplified procedures and faster movement of goods across third country borders. Transit procedures included


in Davies Turner’s Customs Comprehensive Guarantee Authorisation allow goods to be moved across international borders under customs control, and facilitate the movement of goods between the European Union and Common Transit (NES) Countries under duty suspension. Dublin staff have attended


meetings and courses held by Irish Revenue and other official organisations to learn of the changes that Brexit.


will occur under


Central Bank points out in its February Quarterly Bulletin that: “levels of underlying investment remain high by historical


standards and are


almost at the previous peak in 2007.” The main fly in the ointment,


as far as the Central Bank is concerned, is a Brexit deal between the UK and EU that results in a worse position for Irish firms trading with the UK than the existing arrangements. It adds that imports have


been volatile in the last year, increasing by 21.9% but forecasts a decline of 4.2% in 2020, but acknowledges


///IRELAND


physically base their fleets there. Northern Ireland


Economically – and even, for the time being, politically – things are much quieter in Northern Ireland with PwC predicting growth of no more than 0.8% in 2020 down from 2019’s hardly exciting figure of 1.0%. This is broadly in line with the


rest of the UK which is projected to see a similar fall from 1.2% in 2019 to 1.0% in 2020, although one


of that much of


this is accounted for by aircraſt purchases by leasing firms, many of which are based in Ireland but do not necessarily


Northern Ireland’s


bugbears has long been that its productivity has lagged the rest of the country. PwC’s suggested remedy for this is increased investment in skills


connectivity and transport infrastructure. But at least one of Northern


Ireland’s political and economic issues appears to have been resolved


– the Stormont


government is sitting again aſter being suspended for two years due to political disagreements between the main parties. The British government has also suggested that a bridge might be built between Northern Ireland and Scotland. In Boris Johnson, the UK has a prime minister with a penchant for grand plans, but actually getting a scheme to the stage of concrete being poured and piles sunk into the seabed is another matter


entirely. training and retraining, along with investment in Your ferry


company shares are probably safe for now.


Page 1  |  Page 2  |  Page 3  |  Page 4  |  Page 5  |  Page 6  |  Page 7  |  Page 8  |  Page 9  |  Page 10  |  Page 11  |  Page 12  |  Page 13  |  Page 14  |  Page 15  |  Page 16  |  Page 17  |  Page 18  |  Page 19  |  Page 20  |  Page 21  |  Page 22  |  Page 23  |  Page 24  |  Page 25  |  Page 26  |  Page 27  |  Page 28  |  Page 29  |  Page 30  |  Page 31  |  Page 32  |  Page 33  |  Page 34  |  Page 35  |  Page 36