OUTLOOK\\\ >> 10


$370 billion in Chinese goods. The next


“phase” likely won’t happen until aſter the election, reports say. At least one sector remains


wary. “We hope this commitment


would allow U.S. pulp and paper manufacturers to recapture lost sales,” says Jacob Handelsman, the American Forest & Paper Association Senior Director for International Trade. ”But we remain concerned the agreement does not call for a rollback of the additional tariffs China imposed since the fall of 2018.” Likewise, Alex Strogen, COO


at Port of Vancouver USA, points to agriculture: “Despite the U.S.- China ‘Phase I’ trade deal, the United Grain Corp. at the Port of Vancouver is expecting demand for ag products to remain relatively flat in the coming year.” As


for the USMCA, the


Senate on Jan. 16 passed the trillion-dollar agreement. With bipartisan Congressional


”We remain concerned [that the China agreement] does not call for a


rollback of the additional tariffs China imposed since the fall of 2018.” -- Jacob Handelsman, American Forest & Paper Association.


support, the pact heads to President Trump’s desk. The AF&PA applauds the


replacement of the 25-year- old NAFTA, especially with a crackdown on illegal logging, although some observers offer a we’ll-see shrug. “USMCA will have no effect


whatsoever, it will continue as business as usual as was under NAFTA, we think,” says Kevin Turner, Senior Charter Manager


on the horizon, IMO 2030, will cause us to have heartburn, too, but that is down the road a ways.”


Nearer Term Worries Nearer term: Fears of economic global contraction,


especially in manufacturing. “While the manufacturing


sector is definitely struggling, it is not yet in bad enough shape to suggest that a recession is on the way,” The New York Times reported in a December article about the Institute of Supply Chain Management’s “Report On Business.” The ISM predicted food, beverage and


tobacco


products will improve, while transportation equipment will be weakest as a result of Phase I. Of 18 industries listed, 15 saw contractions at the end of 2019, including apparel,


“The trade war with China is bringing a once-in-a-generation shiſt for our industry, highlighting the need for


today’s supply chains to be diverse.” – Nate Herman, AAFA.


Issue 1 2020 - FBJNA


at Thorco, primarily a project cargo and breakbulk carrier. “The trade war appears to be winding down, but with volatile leaders, you never know what will really happen.” For the last year, Turner


says, the maritime world has focused on IMO 2020, the sulfur- emission rules that started Jan. 1. “So far, prices for bunkers


have increased as expected, however, in the short run, freight rates have not followed suit. We anticipate a catch up very soon,” he says. “Further regulations


“Investment in the nation’s


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infrastructure is essential to ensuring our products move safely and


efficiently across the nation’s rail and highway systems.”


-- Michael Blume, AF&PA


wood products, petroleum and coal, chemical products and machinery, among others. In New Orleans, Brandy D.


Christian, President & CEO of Port NOLA and CEO of New


Orleans Public Belt Railroad Corp., runs through a list of commodities and supply-chain issues.


“If trade tensions remain


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