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Issue 1 2020 - FBJNA Two ships pass in Charleston Harbor. (SCPA photo.)


///OUTLOOK


2020 Outlook for Commodities Shiſt with Trade Wars’ Winds


By John Jeter


Steel yourselves. Go bananas. Drive on. Lumber on. Grab a cuppa before coffee prices heat up. Shop around. Dress up. Boost energy. Get regulated. Throughout


the supply


chain, the 2020 outlook for commodities looks fair to “poultry” sunny. All of that, according to a broad range of stakeholders, depends on which way the trade winds blow. “Honestly, who really knows?”


says Thad Bedard, vice president of Strategy, Marketing and Business Development at APL Logistics. “If anyone thinks they can predict which commodities will be most affected by all these volatile variables, then good luck to them.” For every C-suiter who says


the safest bet will be on such goods as autos and apparel,


another supply chain executive or trade organization leader will tell you they are bullishness on steel or forest products. For


instance: “I wouldn’t


expect growth at all in the finished vehicle goods sector. In fact, I would expect some contraction for finished vehicles right now because of the impacts of the Trump tariffs and because of uncertainty,” says Greg Borossay, Principal Maritime Business Development at Port of San Diego. The port’s National City


Marine Terminal handles more than 480,000 vehicles annually, but


uptick in bananas; 90% of those consumed on the West Coast come through San Diego’s ports. The fruit has avoided becoming a casualty in the tariff


Borossay forecasts an


wars—and so have vacationers: Disney and Carnival cruise lines are adding vessels, with growth pushing 25%, Borossay “Americans have enough disposable


income at the


present time, and we’re feeling pretty good about wages and employment,” he says. “And there’s been relative quiet in places like Cabo, Mazatlán, the Mexican Riviera.”


Hot Trade Wars


Where peace hasn’t prevailed so much, execs say, is on the various trade war fronts, namely China, the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) and Brexit. On January 15, the U.S. and China signed the so-called Phase I agreement, marking a détente in the world’s two largest economies’ 2-year-old tariffs dispute.


(APL Logistics Photo.) Over two years, China pledges


to purchase $78 billion worth of manufactured goods, $52 billion in energy, $32 billion


in agricultural products and up to $38 billion in services, according to the Wall Street Journal. However, the 86-page


agreement leaves in place U.S. levies on roughly three-quarters of Chinese imports, or about


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