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Policy & Compliance


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Climate change – what next?


When Brexit is eventually behind us, concerns about transport and its effect on climate change are likely to come under much sharper focus. The issues, including some uncomfortable choices, are highlighted here.


One subject that is constantly in the news is climate change and its impact on the environment. BIFA has been keeping a watching brief on the subject, participating in events as appropriate and publishing case studies that may be of interest to Members.


Recent events have shown the importance attached to this subject, particularly by the younger generation, and the complexity of the issue in terms of both its causes and solutions. Transport in all its various forms, including the privately owned car, is now one of the largest and in some cases the largest contributor to greenhouse gas emissions, particularly in the cities. According to the 2016 figures from BEIS – the most recent available – transport emissions increased by 2% between 2015 and 2016. Overall emissions decreased by 5% in the same timeframe.


Emission cuts Since 1990, greenhouse gas emissions have fallen 41% in the UK, whilst carbon dioxide – the main greenhouse gas – has fallen by 36%. Energy suppliers have cut their emissions by 57% during the same period, whilst the transport sector has only managed a 2% reduction. During this period, we have seen significant changes in consumer behaviour and business models with the rise of e-commerce.


As someone commented at a recent meeting:


“We now increasingly bring stuff to the consumer, not the other way around.” Whilst pollution could be cut by the use of non-fossil fuelled vehicles, other problems such as congestion remain. Within these figures road transport, including the private motor car, accounts for between 72% and 73% of all greenhouse gas emissions. Measuring the whole sector’s impact on the


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environment can be difficult as international maritime is excluded from calculations whilst air is not. Also, we are painfully aware of the complex calculations required to measure the amount of CO2


across various modes. Recently our sector has seen the controversy


surrounding the implementation of new regulations on shipping lines, forcing them to use low sulphur fuel or to fit scrubbers to vessels in order to meet tougher emissions regulations. What is clear from all available information is the shift to a low-carbon economy, with a move towards increased use of non-fossil fuelled vehicles supported by other initiatives such as better vehicle utilisation to reduce emissions. Against this European background, on 12 June,


the UK government committed to cutting greenhouse gas emissions to zero by 2050, under the terms of a new government plan to tackle climate change. Scotland had already committed to reaching the same target in 2045. It should be noted that the UK had already committed to reducing emissions by 80% in the Climate Change Act of 2008. It is important to note that the actual phrase is “net zero” greenhouse gases by 2050. This will allow the utilisation of ‘carbon offsetting’ and ‘capture’. The question is, of course, how can this goal be achieved in a relatively painless way? Some changes such as the move to LED light bulbs, hybrid and eventually electric cars are relatively painless. But in order to provide the necessary low carbon electricity there will have to be a significant investment in clean energy generation and that will require significant


funding. The government failed to spell out whether the cost will fall on the bill-payer, the tax-payer or the fossil fuel companies that some argue have caused the problem. Our sector will have to pay greater attention to these issues, and certain uncomfortable issues have to be faced. For instance, is meeting the government target compatible with building a third runway at Heathrow or expanding the road network? The most fundamental question is how much pain is the consumer, who is a voter, willing to suffer in order to meet this target?


Exporting emissions One thing that has already been highlighted is that manufacturing is now a relatively small part of our economic output – figures suggest about 20%. The danger is that as a nation we will reduce the emissions from cars and power stations but carry on being reliant on imported goods from countries who fail to take the necessary steps to reduce their emissions. As one Member has observed, we export a lot of waste material from the UK to other countries for disposal (often with negative environmental impacts) which causes significant issues. Will it be a similar picture relative to emissions? One step that the government did take to alleviate such concerns was to ensure that there would be a review of the net zero policy in five years to see whether other countries are taking similar actions.


This may be a significant problem if certain world leaders who denigrate the concept of global warming are still in office.


August 2019


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