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INDUSTRY NEWS 5


2010s to record poorest figures on housebuilding


The 2010s will see the lowest number of new houses built in England since the Second World War, according to analysis from think tank CPS. This is reportedly part of a 50-year pattern, in which each decade has seen fewer new homes built than the last.


New build housing completions in England between 2010 and 2019 are set to be approximately 130,000 per year, accord- ing to CPS. That is significantly lower than the 147,000 of the 2000s, 150,000 of the 1990s, and half the level seen in the 1960s and 70s.


CPS states that in the 1960s, the new build construction rate in England was roughly the equivalent of one home for every 14 people over the decade. In the 2010s, that ratio was one to 43, more than three times higher. The figures could be improved


somewhat by factoring in conversions of


existing properties said CPS, but even then the net additional dwellings is reportedly likely to be lower this decade than last. Across the UK as a whole, the pattern is


broadly similar, with housebuilding falling from a peak of 3.6 million new units in the 1960s, to 1.9 million in the 1990s and 2000s, with the 2010s set to come in lower still.


House price growth slows in 2018


Khan accuses Government of ‘hypocrisy’ over blocks on London developments


Ministers have been accused of “hypocrisy” by the Mayor of London, Sadiq Khan, who stated that they have“appeared to cave in to lobbying efforts by blocking or threatening” three housing schemes in London. In the space of a week, City Hall reports


that the Government threatened to block the Mayor’s approval of the Newcombe House redevelopment at Notting Hill Gate, and blocked the decision to approve the redevelopment of the Purley Baptist Church and Hall in Croydon, and threat- ened to block the Mayor from ‘taking over’ plans to redevelop the Kensington Forum hotel. This was refused by the local council, and would have included social housing. Khan said: “By blocking these three


schemes, this Government appears to have bowed to lobbying in what can only been seen as a case of hypocrisy. “Londoners cannot take this


Government seriously when the Secretary of State for Housing goes out of his way to stop new homes – including social


housing – being built in the capital.” He continued: “Instead of giving in to


lobbying, Ministers need to show they are serious about supporting me in building the new social rented and other genuinely affordable homes Londoners need. “Particularly with the two applications in


Kensington and Chelsea, and in light of the chronic shortage of affordable homes seen after the terrible Grenfell Tower fire, this intervention by the Minister is unhelpful and unnecessary.”


House price inflation has slowed to 2.6 per cent, the slowest rate of annual growth since 2012, according to the latest Hometrack UK Cities House Price Index. Hometrack has reported that this is due to ongoing price falls in London and a sustained slowdown across cities in southern England. In the capital, house prices have fallen by 0.1 per cent over the past 12 months, and this is only the second time in 23 years that London has ended the year with negative growth. Prices are falling across two-thirds of local authority areas of London City by up to -3.5 per cent (in Camden), while average values are rising in a third of markets by up to 2 per cent in Barking and Dagenham.


Recent house price falls are doing little to materially change the affordability picture in London. The house price to earnings ratio peaked at 14x in 2016, and has started to fall but remains stretched at 13.3x. Edinburgh is currently the fastest growing city at 6.6 per cent, with price rises in Manchester and Birmingham also running at above 6 per cent. However, only four cities are registering higher levels of house price growth than this time a year ago, Manchester, Liverpool, Cardiff and Newcastle. The cities that have seen the greatest


slowdown are all located in the south of England: Bournemouth, Portsmouth and Bristol. Affordability pressures have increased in these cities over the past year, and they now record the highest house price to earnings ratios outside of London, Oxford and Cambridge. Over the course of 2019, Hometrack expects UK city house prices to rise by 2 per cent, as above average growth in large regional cities offsets price falls in London. Prices in London are forecast to register falls of up to 2 per cent, while in more affordable cities such as Liverpool and Glasgow, they could rise by another 5 per cent next year.


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