CURRENCY WATCH
FX OIL
neutral, we are in the forecast decline to retest 1273.10 for May 2018. We are forecasting a deeper decline to 1261 into August 2019, then very gradual rally to retest 1374 through February 2019, still within the ongoing, broad, medium-term consolidation [1238 – 1374] into March 2019. We continue to stress that this consolidation is the final formation of the long-term bottom for Gold for a relatively shallow rally to 1525, out to January 2020 from the first half of 2019. Only a monthly close back below 1222 (nudging medium-term momentum back to neutral/bearish and commence a decline to retest 1147 over the subsequent four months) or a monthly close above 1374 (commencing the rally to only 1525) would alter the neutral medium-term outlook into the middle of 2019.
OIL BITCOIN/USD
term momentum and begin a 12% rally to 74.45 strong long-term resistance over two months.
GOLD
The inverse relationship between Gold and the U.S. Dollar is one of the few correlations between asset classes that remains mostly intact during
this disjointed global period in the markets. Our long-term bearish outlook for Gold since May 2012 culminated with the decline to the 1044.55 ongoing long-term objective for Gold in December 2015.
Aſter the forecast rally from 1238 to the 1374 March 2018 objective leſt medium-term techs eroding in
As discussed in the last seven quarters of articles in FX Trader Magazine, the plunge in Crude Oil from 108, through the 33.20 long-term objective for January 2016 to 26, produced the strongest medium-term divergences in 15 years [stronger than from the plunge in 2009]. In addition, the rally through both the 62.60 interim objective [forecast for February 2018] and through the 69.20 ongoing medium-term objective for April 2018 to 72.85 produced weak complex long-term divergences and leſt neutral/bullish medium-term momentum waning back to neutral.
FX TRADER MAGAZINE July - September 2018 33
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