FX CURRENCY WATCH
[127.55 – 141.20] into the fourth quarter of 2019.
USD/CHF
I am sorry to again state one of my strongest beliefs about the currency market; that the Swiss Franc remains the bellwether, proactive currency. Indicative of the forecast waning
bullish long-term momentum in the U.S. Dollar, USD/CHF rallied to 1.0040 in October 2017, just shy of the 1.0110 objective for November 2017. Simultaneously, the EUR/ CHF rallied from 1.0960 to the 1.1790 medium-term objective. The failure to close above both 1.0110 as well as 1.1790 in December 2017 were the clear indications that the
final, last gasp rally in the long-term U.S. Dollar had taken place.
We are forecasting a weak further retest of 1.0010 through August 2018, then lower again to .9660 through November 2018, on route to .9445 through January 2019 in a neutral/bearish medium-term outlook [.9445 – 1.0040] through May 2019. As in the last three quarterly outlooks, only a monthly close below .9445 in USD/CHF (resulting in a decline to .8705) would confirm the commencement of the broader Dollar decline to ensue through late 2019.
NOTE: EUR/CHF failed the 1.1790 medium-term objective for November 2017; retest of 1.1445 into March 2018 achieved; now 1.1215 through November in broad [1.1215 – 1.1845] into May 2019.
USD/RUB USD/RUB GOLD 32 FX TRADER MAGAZINE July - September 2018
After the yearlong decline to 55.70 in April 2017 produced strong complex medium-term divergences just shy of the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, the sideways 6% consolidation throughout the first quarter of 2018 alleviated most of the divergences. We have completed the forecast retest of 61.10 for May 2018, and now forecast a rally to 66.50 into September in a volatile 9% consolidation range [61.10 – 66.50] through January 2019. Only a monthly close back above 66.50 would
reignite bullish medium-
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