FX CURRENCY WATCH
EUR/USD As stated in the last three years of articles for FX Trader Magazine, our long-term forecast continued to stress the top in the EUR/USD since 2009 [at 1.4740], as well as the forecast subsequent declines to 1.1555 for March 2014, and 1.0460 for October 2016 in the ongoing seven-year Dollar Bull Market
Forecast. By rallying from the low to complete the monthly close back above 1.1305 in June 2017, we crossed our “line in the sand” and terminated the Dollar Bull Market.
The impact on the EUR/USD was a rally through the 1.2040 medium- term objective for January 2018 to 1.2555. The most impactful event of this last quarter was the EUR/
USD decline through our 1.2155 corrective objective for May 2018 to close the month of April below 1.1830, further neutralizing the medium-term and long-term techs and sharply altering our outlook through March 2019.
We are now forecasting a retest of 1.1445 [just above the original breakout] through September 2018 in a lower, choppy consolidation [1.1305 – 1.2165] into January 2019. We are
forecasting a
subsequent rally through 1.2090 to retest 1.2555 through February 2019, on route to 1.3190 through June 2019 in a six months longer Dollar top development through midyear 2019.
Only a monthly EUR/USD
close in EUR/USD above 1.2555 (resulting in a new leg up to 1.3990 strong long-term resistance over six months) or a monthly close back below 1.1305 (eroding medium- term techs within neutral and yielding a decline to retest 1.0815 strong medium-term support over two months) would alter our more neutral medium-term outlook for EUR/USD for the next nine months.
GBP/USD When our bearish
forecast for GBP/USD 30 FX TRADER MAGAZINE July - September 2018
GBP/USD was completed with the decline to the 1.3655 long-term objective in June 2016, the further deep and brief decline to 1.1950 developed the strongest complex medium-term divergences in a year. Similar to the drastic change
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