CURRENCY WATCH
FX term outlook through July 2019.
NOTE: EUR/GBP - We now forecast a retest of .8580, up from .8380 [.8380
through August
2018. USD/JPY
USD/JPY
After the premature monthly close below 108.15 in February 2018 and decline to 104.30 left medium- term technicals very divergent, the forecast retest of 110.20 for May 2018 alleviated the divergent medium-term conditions. We are forecasting a weak retest of 111.40 through July 2018, then a gradual decline to retest 104.30 through November 2018, still in the resulting lower, choppy medium- term consolidation
[ 104.30 – USD/CHF
in the EUR/USD, the monthly close back below 1.3875 in March 2018 terminated the forecast rally to 1.4565, and now results in a weak further retest of 1.3155 through July 2018 in a lower, volatile medium-term outlook [1.2775 – 1.4225] into December 2018. We are forecasting a subsequent rally through 1.4380 in February 2019 to 1.4565 in
March 2019 in a resulting higher long-term outlook [1.3660 – 1.5025] through July 2019. Only a monthly close back below 1.3040 (yielding 1.2110 weak long-term support over four months) or a monthly close back above 1.5025 (resulting in a rally to 1.5930 weak long-term resistance over four months) would alter our broad, mixed, neutral/bullish medium-
111.40] through February 2018. Only a monthly close still below 104.30 (reigniting bearish medium- term momentum and resulting in a decline to retest 100.20 over two months) or a monthly close still above 113.40 (resulting in a strong retest of 118.60 over three months) would alter the mixed, neutral/ bearish medium-term outlook.
NOTE: We are forecasting a retest of 124.10 into September 2018 before
into January
term consolidation [124.10 – 137.50]
a choppy medium- 2019. We
are forecasting a subsequent rally through 137.50 in March 2019, to 141.20 through July 2019, in a subsequently higher, broad outlook
FX TRADER MAGAZINE July - September 2018 31 2018, in - .8905] into December
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