The show held a number of seminars running concurrently covering topics such as ‘Improving planning of offshore wind farms and coexistence in increasingly busy seas’, ‘Making floating wind energy commercially competitive’ and ‘Making the most of synergies between oil and gas and offshore wind’. Fascinating and enlightening stuff – and it really was!
As I dug around for information, it quickly became clear that this sector is complex. Who owns what for example? Auctions are taking place for plots of seabed, but why? Who leases what and to whom? What type of specialist vessels are being constructed and coming in to service the sector – heavy lift, jack-ups and fast crew transfer vessels being just three examples? Who are the vessel operators and what are their needs from a survey regime perspective? And most importantly for me, where does the marine surveyor fit it to all of this? It is still not abundantly clear either.
This still has the feeling of a brand new, vibrant industry that is
breaking new boundaries at regular intervals, but one that is set to run and run and grow fast. Wind has been a source of power and energy since the dawn of time; but it seems now, more than ever before, that we are set to harvest the wind like never before.
What we know so far
The plunging cost of wind and solar power means they will be cheaper than coal fired production in many countries within five years. Wind and solar will provide a third of the world’s electricity in about 25 years, a leading analysis firm has predicted.
Bloomberg New Energy Finance predicts that by 2040, 34 per cent of the world’s electricity will come from wind and solar power, up from 5 per cent today. By contrast, Exxon’s most recent forecast is that all renewable sources, excluding hydro power, will provide just 11 per cent of the world’s electricity in 2040.
The sharp divergence of views about the outlook is a reminder that these forecasts are well-informed estimates rather than infallible predictions. Oil companies argue the advantages of fossil fuels, including high energy density, ease of storage, flexibility and cost, means they will continue to dominate the energy landscape for decades to come.
Ethan Zindler, analyst at BNEF, said “Given the rate of change that we have already seen in the power sector, to assume a status quo scenario is a risky forecast.”
Over the past nine years, the cost of wind power has dropped by 71 per cent, and solar by 83 per cent in the US.
So where next?
Australia, USA, Mexico and India are all working hard to develop their interests in this field, but it is perhaps Asia that is set to see the next big growth.
The Report • September 2017 • Issue 81 | 31
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