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Forward View


countries such as Japan that rely on imports. He told the BBC that Britain would be very tight on power station capacity in three to five years. We will have to go shopping in world markets at a time when they’ll be very tight for supplies themselves. It was impossible to predict, he said, how high bills could go for British households. We may just scrape through, but the grid is going to come under a lot of stress. Te risk of brownouts and blackouts - and their crippling effects for industry - looks certain to rise steadily as we approach 2016 and the years beyond. Energy bills will carry on going up inexorably, and as demand outstrips supply the market may turn into a bidding war.


Deadly impact So what does all this mean for manufacturing industry? How to avoid the deadly impact of rocketing and unpredictable fuel costs on profitability? How to guard against the nightmare scenario of factory floors grinding to a halt as the power suddenly goes down? An obvious but essential starting point is to know


your usage by getting a detailed picture of exactly what you’re doing with your energy and why. Do you know down to appliance level, for example, where your highest costs are? Could machines that are left permanently switched on be powered down overnight without affecting performance? Many factories are still not optimised for energy efficiency. A well-researched and planned


investment programme to replace or modify equipment can play a big part in reducing consumption and cost. But even this of course,


valuable though it is, will not provide much protection against rising bills and threats to supply. So the clear answer is to gain more independence though a secure and stable source that’s under your control - and it’s here that producing your own renewable energy on site could be the key. Let us start with wind power.


For factories in the right location, there’s a sweet spot in the feed-in tariff (FiT) banding where small to medium turbines with a capacity of 500kw are proving a highly cost-effective option. Even for those where wind


Tere are some interesting developments in the solar world too. Te cost of panels has come down thanks to increasing capacity and competition between solar manufacturers. Most factories of a reasonable size with roof space can install a cost-effective solar array of under 250kw, and the next 12 months could be a good time to make the investment before the market consolidates and prices go up again. If you have some spare land that could take a small-scale anaerobic digestion plant, perhaps working in collaboration with a developer, this is another good potential route to secure some fuel independence and a stable cost. AD technology converts organic waste into biogas that can be used as a fuel or burned and converted into electricity. It also produces natural, nutrient-rich digestate as an automatic by-product that can be sold for agricultural or domestic use.


We have looked so far at the


threats of high fuel costs and loss of power. But there can be some real commercial, competitive and reputational advantages too in securing a more independent supply.


“We may just scrape through, but the grid is going to come under a lot of stress. The risk of brownouts and blackouts – and their crippling effects for industry – looks certain to rise steadily as we approach 2016 and the years beyond.”


Rob Hill, Wardell Armstrong


can’t be viably generated on site, there are good opportunities to become the sole funder or part of an investment group in a wind farm. Tis can both secure an independent power source and create a revenue stream to offset traditional procurement costs.


8 www.engineerlive.com


Continuity Reliable energy continuity may well become an increasingly important selection factor in customers’ choice of suppliers. Tere is price advantage to be gained by the private generation of renewable energy. New revenue streams are there for the taking with FiT subsidies for installations under 5MW and renewable obligation certificates (ROC) over that limit. And on top of all that of course, there are all the environmental benefits of reducing emissions, helping to mitigate climate change and meeting CSR commitments. Whether or not the lights actually do go out in 2016, none


of that can be a bad thing. ●


Rob Hill is Energy group associate director, Wardell Armstrong, Stoke on Trent, UK. www.wardell-armstrong.com


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