Focus on Coal


Te key German market, which is seeing substantial capacity additions due to the projects currently under construction, still suffers from overcapacity despite the looming gradual phase-out of nuclear power. German winter peak demand is typically below 88GW, compared to 77GW of conventional thermal power station capacity alone. Tere is also little need to new thermal capacity in other Western European market, which are suffering from a deadly combination of rising renewables output and weak or falling electricity demand. Te prospects for coal plant orders in Western


Europe over the next few years are therefore extremely limited, given existing thermal over capacities, weak industrial demand and strong opposition to coal plants. However, in Europe as a whole, there will be a


few hotspots of activity amidst a generally depressed European outlook. Te EU country with the best outlook for new coal plants is Poland, although the story even there is one of slowing down investment. In the longer term, there could be a challenge to coal’s dominance in the Polish power sector from shale gas but only over the next few years will it become clearer how much gas is actually realistically extractable. Te other large European market for new coal plants will be Turkey. Driven by a rapidly expanding economy and a desire to reduce its reliance on imported natural gas, the country is seeing significant coal investments. Turkey has seen higher order


numbers in terms of units, but the size of these plants is smaller and they have tended to be of the subcritical variety. Apart from Poland and Turkey, there are also expected to be opportunities in the Balkans. Countries such as Serbia, Kosovo and Bosnia-Herzegovina will offer the best prospects. Te region does not participate in the EU’s carbon trading scheme (though recent developments make this increasingly less relevant) and there is less opposition to coal plants compared to Western Europe. Moreover, there is the potential for power exports


as the region as a whole has fairly tight reserve margins and governments are keen to utilise abundant local coal reserves. Te overall picture in Europe is therefore mixed.


Business is currently good for operators of existing coal plants, with high utilisation of such plants also expected to give a boost to providers of service and maintenance solutions for several more years. On the other hand, near-term developments in coal plant new-build are effectively limited to parts of Central & Eastern Europe and Turkey. Over the longer term, only a successful


commercialisation of carbon capture and storage (CCS) will reignite coal project development in the core markets of Western Europe, but this is not expected before 2030. ●


For more information, visit www.frost.com


“When we looked at the types of machines that could support all the conditions of the tunnel we were going to under- take, the Sandvik range offered exactly what we needed.”


Invincible speed and accuracy


Understanding underground


For decades, Sandvik has worked with various tunneling methods at customer sites around the world, creating expertise that results in intelligent cutting-edge technology. As the only manufacturer with its own underground R&D center at the factory, Sandvik continues to be the clear forerunner in the tunneling equipment industry. Always striving to serve you with the best possible solution for your application at hand.


Learn more at www.understandingunderground.sandvik.com www.construction.sandvik.com For more information ✔ at www.engineerlive.com/ipe


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KIM BAILEY Plant Manager


Leighton Contractors (Asia) Ltd. Hong Kong


Expertise in drilling


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