Northwest
Northern Sea Route
Passage
San
Rotterdam Rotterdam
Francisco
Yokohama
Current route
Current route
Figure 5.18: The Northern Sea Route and the Northwest Pas-
sage compared with currently used shipping routes.
Photo: Jeremy Harbeck
Source: Based on material from Aftenposten, Norway
ocean currents, temperature and nutrient availability favour the survival of krill larvae through their first win-
makes predictions about how fisheries might be affected ter. A possible decrease in the frequency of winters with
by sea-ice reductions in the Arctic uncertain
104
. extensive sea-ice development might lead to increased
krill recruitment failures and population decline
107
. With
Fisheries in the Antarctic region involve about 18 na- krill being a key species in the Antarctic ecosystem, a
tions from around the world, including Russia, Ukraine, decline in the population will in turn influence higher
France, Chile, Argentina and Japan. The total reported trophic levels. The combined pressures of exploitation
catch of toothfish and icefish in 2005/2006 in the regu- and climate change are thus likely to result in consider-
lated Antarctic fishery was 19 890 tonnes, and the krill able changes to Antarctic fisheries.
catch was 106 591 tonnes
105
. The krill fishery, which pro-
vides feed for aquaculture as well as human food and di- Arctic oil and gas
etary supplements, is expanding – the krill catch for the
2006/2007 season is projected to be as high as 368 000 The Arctic holds a great share of the world’s reserves.
tonnes, tripled from the previous year
106
. At present the Arctic shares of global oil and gas pro-
duction are 10.5 per cent and 25.5 per cent, respectively.
Projected reductions in the amount of Antarctic sea ice Additionally, Arctic basins are estimated to hold around
might limit the development of the sea-ice marginal 24 per cent of the world’s undiscovered petroleum re-
zone, with consequences for the biota
107
. On the other sources
104
. These reserves represent enormous wealth as
hand, greater freshening of the mixed ocean layer from well as significant potential for economic growth and de-
increased precipitation and melting ice might have a velopment in Arctic regions, and offshore oil exploration
compensating effect. The krill fishery, which is restrict- and production is likely to benefit from less extensive
ed to ice-free periods, could become more attractive to and thinner sea ice. However, diminishing sea-ice cover
nations not already involved if there is a retreat of sea will lead to more icebergs and increased wave activity
107
.
ice in Antarctica
107
. Simultaneously, extensive seasonal This, in turn, will create new challenges for the offshore
ice cover is known to promote early krill spawning and industry, such as the need for costlier equipment.
90 GLOBAL OUTLOOK FOR ICE AND SNOW
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