TECHNICAL OUTLOOK
the bellwether, proactive currency. Te continuation through the first quarter consolidation and cross rate rotation combine in this currency. Every time the USD/CHF appeared to break out to the upside, EUR/CHF would decline, thus dampening any bullish momentum back to neutral. Each time the USD/CHF would break out to
the downside, EUR/CHF would rally to its high and again neutralize any bearish momentum in USD/CHF. As a result, the USD/CHF remained only neutral/bullish.
In the fourth quarter, though, we resumed the USD/CHF rally toward our 1.0440 January 2017 objective. As
FX USD/CHF
we tested 1.0340 about 1% from the objective, EUR/CHF again declined toward the 1.0625 medium-term pivot point and dampened the bullish medium-term techs in USD/CHF. We continue to forecast the rally to 1.0440 through May 2017, out from January 2017, but also continue to forecast the decline in EUR/CHF to 1.0235, out to June 2017 from January 2017. Tis 4% decline in EUR/CHF will continue to constrain USD/CHF and produce significant medium-term divergences through June 2017. We are focused on a weekly close in EUR/CHF below 1.0625 to commence the forecast decline to 1.0235 and maintain our complex CHF outlook. NOTE: In our big picture, the struggle of USD/CHF and resulting medium- term divergences [as the EUR/USD completes its seven-year cyclical decline at .9890] is also a strong indication of the waning long-term bull market in the Dollar that we continue to believe culminates by the middle of 2017.
GOLD
Te inverse relationship between Gold and the U.S. Dollar is one of the
few correlations that remain
mostly intact during this disjointed global environment. Our long-term bearish outlook for Gold since May 2012 culminated with the decline to the 1044.55 ongoing
long-term
objective for Gold in December 2015. Te strong rally through the 1155 medium-term corrective
objective GOLD
for February 2016 to 1377 again eroded the improved medium-term techs within neutral/bearish. We continue to forecast a subsequent decline to retest 1044, out to July
FX TRADER MAGAZINE April - June 2017 41
Page 1 |
Page 2 |
Page 3 |
Page 4 |
Page 5 |
Page 6 |
Page 7 |
Page 8 |
Page 9 |
Page 10 |
Page 11 |
Page 12 |
Page 13 |
Page 14 |
Page 15 |
Page 16 |
Page 17 |
Page 18 |
Page 19 |
Page 20 |
Page 21 |
Page 22 |
Page 23 |
Page 24 |
Page 25 |
Page 26 |
Page 27 |
Page 28 |
Page 29 |
Page 30 |
Page 31 |
Page 32 |
Page 33 |
Page 34 |
Page 35 |
Page 36 |
Page 37 |
Page 38 |
Page 39 |
Page 40 |
Page 41 |
Page 42 |
Page 43 |
Page 44 |
Page 45 |
Page 46 |
Page 47 |
Page 48 |
Page 49 |
Page 50 |
Page 51 |
Page 52 |
Page 53 |
Page 54 |
Page 55 |
Page 56 |
Page 57 |
Page 58 |
Page 59 |
Page 60 |
Page 61 |
Page 62 |
Page 63 |
Page 64
