MACROECONOMICS
Lisbon Treaty has been triggered. At this juncture, it was an important formality but a formality nonetheless. There will be much jockeying for position, feints, and parries, and investors need to look past the noise and remain focused on the signal. Te signal is still a function of macroeconomics and market p o s it i o n i n g . Alt h o u g h there has been a dramatic adj u s t me n t of speculative p o s i t i o n i n g in the futures market for euros,
p o s i t i o n i n g has
sterling hardly
adjusted. The UK economy remains resilient, though it is expected to slow. Price pressures may not have peaked, but without stronger wage growth, the impact from the past decline in sterling and rise in oil prices will dissipate.
Investors need to look past the noise and remain focused on the signal
collapse, but simply returns to trend, it ought not impact expectations for Fed policy. A June hike still seems to be the most likely scenario.
US non-farm payrolls are oſten the single most important economic report in the US monthly data cycle. Aſter two months of jobs growth in excess of 200k a month, a reversion
This month the US, and Chinese Presidents have their first face-to- face meeting. Trump has toned down the bellicose rhetoric in which he accused China of “raping”
to the mean seems likely. jobs claims. It may
have been hinted by the increase in weekly
Payback
may come from manufacturing and construction sectors, which have been particularly strong. However, provided that job growth does not
FX
America, threatened to abandon the one-China policy, and citing China as a currency manipulator “on day one.” China seems to have made a few concessions.
It has banned coal
imports from North Korea, and the US had long wanted China to do more to rein in its ally. It has also granted Trump a little more than three dozen t r adema r k s, i n c l u d i n g , according to the Guardian, an escort service.
When Japanese Prime Minister Abe visited President Trump recently, the two agreed to trade talks to be led by the US Vice President Pence and Japanese Finance Minister Aso.
This may
very well serve as the template for the US and China. Such talks, incidentally, are also similar to part of the consequences of the US Treasury finding a country guilty of currency manipulation. That report is due later in the month, and given the current criteria, China is unlikely to be cited. Also, President Xi may announce some new commercial
FX TRADER MAGAZINE April - June 2017 15
Page 1 |
Page 2 |
Page 3 |
Page 4 |
Page 5 |
Page 6 |
Page 7 |
Page 8 |
Page 9 |
Page 10 |
Page 11 |
Page 12 |
Page 13 |
Page 14 |
Page 15 |
Page 16 |
Page 17 |
Page 18 |
Page 19 |
Page 20 |
Page 21 |
Page 22 |
Page 23 |
Page 24 |
Page 25 |
Page 26 |
Page 27 |
Page 28 |
Page 29 |
Page 30 |
Page 31 |
Page 32 |
Page 33 |
Page 34 |
Page 35 |
Page 36 |
Page 37 |
Page 38 |
Page 39 |
Page 40 |
Page 41 |
Page 42 |
Page 43 |
Page 44 |
Page 45 |
Page 46 |
Page 47 |
Page 48 |
Page 49 |
Page 50 |
Page 51 |
Page 52 |
Page 53 |
Page 54 |
Page 55 |
Page 56 |
Page 57 |
Page 58 |
Page 59 |
Page 60 |
Page 61 |
Page 62 |
Page 63 |
Page 64
