Tought Leader
When Will Alt-Fuels Replace Diesel- And Gas-Powered School Buses?
WRITTEN BY ROBERT T. PUDLEWSKI
I
nnovation in the school bus and medium-truck market is mov- ing forward at a very rapid pace. Te technological advances of new propane, CNG and electric school buses promise enhanced performance, improved fuel efficiency and reduced impacts to the environment. But districts and contractors will be hesitant to purchase such vehicles unless the following prove to be true: Grants and funding remain available to offset costs of vehicles, fueling and facility infrastructure; cost differential is narrowed; fuel tax credits remain in place; and the required fuel is readily available in their market at affordable prices and able to be on site. Manufacturers are increasingly interested in developing vehicles
powered by electricity, natural gas, propane, and fuel cells, projetcs supported by billions of dollars of investments in research and de- velopment. But which technology will win the hearts of the school bus industry and transform the transportation sector of tomorrow? Without coordination between the vehicle, fueling and battery charging industries, successful market introduction of these new systems will be characterized by starts and stops, booms and busts and a prolonged (and potentially economically painful) market development phase that may or may not result in school bus sector acceptance. An example is the anecdotal evidence voiced by opera- tors frustrated by the maintenance and operation of the post-2007 diesel exhaust emissions reduction systems that is driving much of the interest in alternative fuels. Decision-makers in vehicle sales and manufacturing must join
power train systems developers and fuel suppliers in understanding how the school bus market will mix new technology with the chal- lenges of maintaining its legacy fleet. Also, what adjustments must be made by the operator as regulatory issues develop and change, this will provide the ultimate value to the consumer?
28 School Transportation News • APRIL 2017
WILL NATURAL GAS, PROPANE OR ELECTRIC REPLACE DIESEL AND GASOLINE?
Recently, much attention has been raised concerning the rise of natural gas, propane systems and all-electric drivetrains as a domes- tically sourced and clean school bus transportation fuel, as vocal advocates for electric, natural gas and propane urge the transition of the school bus to run on those fuel systems. However, at present the CNG, Liquefied Propane and electric penetration in the school bus sector is about 5 percent. Many energy experts, presidential councils, and federal and state energy authorities all conclude that diesel will remain the predominant powertrain in North America and will remain the primary trans- portation fuel for the long term. Tis is attributable to the inherent energy density of diesel fuel and the ability of the diesel engine to translate the energy content into power economically. Supported by improved diesel exhaust after treatment systems
developed to clean diesel emissions never imagined 20 years ago, diesel will probably remain the primary power plant choice for the next decade. Based on current school bus sales trends alterna- tive fuels such as CNG and LNG, and innovative battery-electric school buses could increase to 10- to 15 percent of the total school bus market by 2020. Not surprisingly, Cummins has recently announced it is implementing an electrified powertrain program. While alternative fuel proponents have aggressively pushed the claims of cleaner air with electric, CNG and LP, diesel engine manufacturers have not sat idle. New innovations in diesel en- gine design and after-treatment devices have virtually eliminated particulate matter and nitrogen oxides, and new vehicle perfor- mance enhancements have helped lower measurable carbon diox- ide, successfully meeting the lowering of the targeted pollutants
CELEBRATING25YEARS
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