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The Brexit result was something of a shock to many people, not least David Cameron, who must secretly rue the day he nailed his election campaign to what turned out to be an even more divisive issue than he could have imagined. The many forecasters of economic upheaval including the Bank of England have started to be proved right, although how things will turn out in the longer term is far from clear as the UK goes it alone.
Whatever the causes of this momentous decision, our industry now has to adapt to a different world, and the only certainty will be uncertainty for the forseeable future.
Some of the first casualties of the UK’s vote to leave the EU and falls in sterling have been seen in the construction industry, with major housebuilders’ shares plummeting and commercial property investment firms closing their funds in the light of a sharp increase in withdrawal requests from jittery investors. At the time of writing, six major funds had been suspended, belying mantras that London was some sort of unstoppable economic engine.
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For some architects the fallout of Brexit has been tough so far, with firms already having to lay off staff amidst concern about future workloads. Make has let go of 7 per cent of its people, cutting back its London office significantly, and others are starting to follow suit. At the same time, firms benefit hugely from the expertise staff from EU countries bring to practices, but they are now concerned about future prospects. A mass of problems have been created overnight.
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Economic uncertainty is the enemy of investment and innovation. We can’t ever have absolute certainty but what we are now faced with is an extended period of questions; how will we fund new construction short term? How and when will new trade deals get signed? What will the UK construction industry look like following all of this?
Once the new PM finally begins to negotiate with a far less co-operative EU, the answers might not be very palatable. James Parker
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The fact that housebuilders have been hit hard suggests that the growth construction has been enjoying following the last recession had become particularly fragile in recent months, and pre-Brexit PMI data showing a seven-year low in output (on the heels of the Markit report showing a slowdown in housebuilding) only corroborates this. Many small builders went out of business following the 2008 recession, and as we face a prolonged lull in investment deci- sions and warnings of another recession, many of the firms at that end of the sector must feel nervous to say the least.
Analysts are predicting a 5 per cent drop in house prices in 2017 in line with consumer confidence dropping, this might represent a rebalancing in the market for some, but will be grim reading for housebuilders.
From the Editor
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