FX TECHNICAL REPORT SELECTED ASIAN FX RATES – FEATURED MARKET – USD/SGD
USD/SGD has headed steadily lower since peaking at 1.8556 in December 2001, with action having been contained within a (purple) bearish channel. From the 1.5577 lower top established in March 2009, close to the (green) 60 month (5 year) moving average, losses extended to 1.1995 in July 2011, spot-on the base of the (purple) long-term bearish channel and just shy of the 1.1966 measured move target (100% of 1.7063- 1.3452 measured from 1.5577). Recovery attempts from 1.1995 were limited to 1.3199 in October 2011, with a subsequent choppy retreat having leſt a slightly higher low at 1.2153 in October 2012. Despite the subsequent
correction higher, MACD so far remains below the pivotal zero line and with the 12, 60 & 120 month (1, 5 & 10 year) moving averages remaining bearishly aligned the risk remains for an eventual breakdown through 1.2153 & 1.1995 to yet new all-time lows, heading back towards the base of the long-term bear channel over the coming 9-18 months. Te base of this channel currently intersects at 1.1035, falling by .0037 per month. Below there, there is a 1.0791 measured move (100% lower from the 1.1995-1.3199 recovery).
Steve Jarvis
MAJOR TRENDS AND TARGETS FOR SELECTED ASIAN FX RATES As at 16 September NZD/USD USD/SGD USD/MYR USD/THB AUD/CAD AUD/NZD EUR/AUD EUR/NZD
Current level .8185
1.2605 3.2900 31.675 .9635
1.1415 1.4295 1.6310
Major trend Flat
Down Flat Flat Flat
Down Up Up
Major targets 1.1035 / 1.0791
Trend change level .7373 / .8676 1.2970
1.0912 / 1.0654 1.5456 / 1.6353 1.8131 / 1.9568
2.9613 / 3.4490 29.495 / 34.260 .8582 / 1.0717 1.2465 1.3189 1.5591
84 FX TRADER MAGAZINE October - December 2013
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