TECHNICAL REPOR FXT FX EMERGING MARKETS – FEATURED MARKET – EUR/HUF
EUR/HUF recovered strongly from a new all-time traded low at 228.11 in July 2008 (versus 234.06 in January 2003), taking out the June 2006 peak at 284.96 to reach a new all-time traded high at 317.08 in March 2009. Losses from 317.08 built a higher double bottom at 260.96 & 261.93 in March 2010 & July 2011, from where fresh gains to another new all-time high followed, reaching 324.16 in January 2012. The uptrend line connecting 228.11 & 261.93 was retested in August 2012, setting up a bounce to 308.59 in March 2013. Although the 308.59 high was significantly below the 317.08 & 324.16
peaks and a setback has followed, as yet the overall structure remains positive. The 12, 60 & 120 month (1, 5 & 10 year) moving averages are aligned and rising and MACD remains positive. We see scope for May’s dip to 285.67 to mark another higher low, setting up a move through 307.41-308.59 towards 317.08 & 324.16 over the course of the coming 6-12 months, with the (orange) 268.34-317.08 (2001- 2009) resistance line (now at 343.94, rising 0.50 per month) and 349.93 (100% of 2008-2009 rise measured from 2010 higher low) the next major targets above there.
MAJOR TRENDS AND TARGETS FOR FX EMERGING MARKETS As at 16 September EUR/CZK EUR/HUF EUR/PLN EUR/RON USD/ILS USD/RUR USD/TRL USD/ZAR
Current level 25.760 298.70 4.1930 4.4590 3.5320 32.250 1.9955 9.7980
Major trend Up Up
Flat Up
Flat Up Up Up
Major targets
26.614 / 27.704 324.16 / 349.93
4.8714 / 5.0172
34.126 / 36.353 2.1096 / 2.2687 10.688 / 11.870
Trend change level 25.052 285.67
4.0921 / 4.4285 4.2850
3.5166 / 3.9184 30.775 1.7458 8.8600
FX TRADER MAGAZINE October - December 2013 83
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