TECHNICAL REPOR FXT CURRENCY OUTLOOK MAJOR US DOLLAR RATES - FEATURED MARKET – USD/JPY
USD/JPY almost halved in value from the 1998 peak at 147.61, reaching 75.32 in October 2011, near the base of the long-term bear channel. A two-year head & shoulders base was completed in December 2012 by the break above the (red) 85.53-84.16 neck-line, with between 50% & 61.8% of the 2007-2011 124.14-75.32 decline having since been retraced, reaching 103.71 in May 2013, ahead of the latest choppy consolidation over 93.89.
Potentially 93.89 marks a key higher low for a continued advance over coming months,
with support-turned-resistance (from 2006 / 2008) around 109.03-110.65 the next major target, with the possibility of a return towards the 121.39-124.14 area (2005 / 2007 tops) further out. However, failure to clear the recent peak at 103.71 and then the (purple) 15 year downtrend line (now at 105.45, falling by 0.22 per month) ahead of a reversal under 93.89- 94.97 would point to a deeper initial correction to the recovery from 75.32, possibly as far as former key resistance at 84.16-85.53, before heading higher again.
MAJOR TRENDS AND TARGETS FOR US DOLLAR MAJORS As at 16 September
EUR/USD GBP/USD USD/JPY USD/CHF USD/CAD AUD/USD
Current level 1.3365 1.5950 98.75 .9255
1.0300 .9360
Major trend Flat Flat Up
Flat Flat
Down .8546 / .8068
Major targets
110.65 / 117.94
Trend change level 1.2628 / 1.3709 1.4818 / 1.6366 84.16
.9024 / .9969 .9801 / 1.0656 1.0582
FX TRADER MAGAZINE October - December 2013 81
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