TECHNICAL ANALYSIS MAJOR CROSS-RATES - FEATURED MARKET - EUR/CHF
EUR/CHF recorded an all-time traded high at 1.6828 in October 2007, then completed a top pattern and completely retraced the rise from the September 2001 all-time traded low at 1.4401. A breakdown to fresh all-time traded lows occurred in late 2008, with action then being contained within a (orange) bearish channel. Losses accelerated through the channel base to almost reach parity in 2011, reaching 1.0071 an extreme low of 1.0071 in August, before rebounding to 1.2467 in October 2011. Since then, a potential higher platform has
developed at 1.2003 / 1.2123, but attempts to break clear of 1.2467 have so far stalled at 1.2565 / 1.2647, the latter being almost exactly 38.2% of 1.6828- 1.0071. Although the longer-term structure remains bearish, we see potential for an additional recovery over coming months to a minimum of the (February / April) 2011 lower double top at 1.3203 / 1.3239, ideally the 1.3450-1.3484 region (50% of fall / 61.8% projection / falling (blue) 260 week (5 year) moving average, and possibly 1.4247-1.4399 (61.8% retracement / 100% projection).
FX
MAJOR TRENDS AND TARGETS FOR MAJOR CROSS-RATES As at 07 June EUR/GBP GBP/JPY EUR/JPY EUR/CHF EUR/NOK EUR/SEK
Current level .8510
149.45 127.20 1.2330 7.6275 8.6855
Major trend Flat Up Up
Flat Flat
Down
Major targets
163.07 / 168.18 139.14 / 141.00
7.3926 8.0464 & 7.5609
Trend change level .7962 / .8940 133.45 105.46
1.2003 / 1.3239 7.9779 8.7937
FX TRADER MAGAZINE July - September 2013
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