FX TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
EUR/USD We can notice, as a whole, 3 different macro-phases in the Euro/Dollar trend, since the introduction of Euro in January 1999: Phase I (Jan 1999-Apr 2002): fall, consolidation and re- accumulation. Aſter being exchanged in the 1.1800-1.1900 area, just aſter the start of trading in January 1999, the pair EURUSD fell to a historical low at 0.8231 on October 26th, 2000. From that level, there was a development of an upward momentum that went on until April 2002. Phase II (May 2002 – Jul 2008): euro-rally. Since May 2002, we went through a long phase dominated by a strong Euro – or, better said, by a weak dollar – that brought us to a historic high of 1.6038 (+95% from the bottom) on July 15th, 2008. Phase III (Aug 2008 – today): bounce and stabilization of the US Dollar. With the worsening of the financial crisis, the US dollar has kept on strengthening, touching a peak vs. euro on June 7th 2010 at 1.1876. Te trend of euro vs. dollar in the last four- and-a-half years could be described, as a whole, as weak- sideways, with a new worsening since Spring 2011 due to the increasing of tensions in the peripheral countries’ sovereign debt crisis. In the second half of 2012 and throughout January
2013 – along with a certain cheering-up within the euro- zone and the concomitant further Fed’s quantitative easing – the euro rallied steadily, rising from the July 24th bottom at 1.2042 to a peak on February 1st at 1.3712. In the February- March period the euro underwent a deep correction, ended with the April 4th low at 1.2745, followed by a recovery with a peak on May 1st at 1.3244 and a new fall that brought the pair to a low at 1.2796 on May 17th. From the mid-May bottom a rally brought the pair to a top at 1.3420 on June 20th, then a swiſt correction towards 1.3000 took place. Te euro-recovery in the last months, from the bottoms reached at the end of July 2012, is not strong enough to provide bullish signals in a strategic horizon. Te euro dynamics remains therefore uncertain, even versus an intrinsically weak currency as the US Dollar. he technical picture remains fragile: since September 2012 a pattern called “Head&Shoulder” seems along the way, with a neck-line in the 1.2745-1.2800 area. A break of such support would imply a quick test of the strong support area 1.2600/60 and a sell-off with a first important target at 1.2430 and lower towards the July 2012 low at 1.2040. Te downside risks would only diminish in case of a fast recovery above the critical resistance area 1.3250-1.3420, which is not very likely at the moment.
TREND
Trend 3-6 months side-down S1 Trend 6-12 months
side S2 Trend 12-18 months down-side S3 73 FX TRADER MAGAZINE July - September 2013
SUPPORTS
1.2745-1.2800++ 1.2600/60++ 1.2430+
SPOT PRICE 1.3006
R3 R2
RESISTANCES 1.3712++ 1.3500
R1 1.3250-1.3420++
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