FX TECHNICAL ANALYSIS USD/JPY
Dol lar/yen has been moving in a major down- trend for several decades: at the beginning of the seventies it was
trading at around 350,
since the mid-eighties it went steadily below 175, reaching a historical low at 79.75 in April 1995. Af ter a strong bounce reaching a top at 147.65 in August 1998, the “secular” down trend resumed, with a series of fal l ing highs and bottoms, culminated in a new historical low at 75.38 on October 31st 2011. Af ter an accumulation phase, since the end of 2012 a strong rally brought the pair in the 103-104 resistance area (max
103.74
on May 22nd), followed by a correction towards 93.65. The ultra-expansionar y monetary policy adopted by the new Abe administration has produced a strong and generalized depreciation of the yen (-25%
vs Usd since October 2012 to May 2013), a move of such a magnitude was never seen in the previous 15 years. Such policies increase the risk of triggering retaliations and the so- called “currency war ”. Looking at the char ts, the strong upward trend of the previous months seems to be entering a stale phase, above the critical suppor t area 90-92.50. A break of this support (not ver y likely at
the moment) would provide a
bearish signal for the coming months, with a first impor tant target in area 86.80-88.00. The upward trend would resume above 104 (also not very likely), targeting 108-109.
Maurizio Milano
TREND
Trend 3-6 months Trend 6-12 months Trend 12-18 months
side S1
up-side S2 up-side S3
75 FX TRADER MAGAZINE July - September 2013
SUPPORTS
95.00+ 93.65
90.00-92.50++
SPOT PRICE 98.50
R3 R2 R1
RESISTANCES 106
103-104++ 100.00+
Page 1 |
Page 2 |
Page 3 |
Page 4 |
Page 5 |
Page 6 |
Page 7 |
Page 8 |
Page 9 |
Page 10 |
Page 11 |
Page 12 |
Page 13 |
Page 14 |
Page 15 |
Page 16 |
Page 17 |
Page 18 |
Page 19 |
Page 20 |
Page 21 |
Page 22 |
Page 23 |
Page 24 |
Page 25 |
Page 26 |
Page 27 |
Page 28 |
Page 29 |
Page 30 |
Page 31 |
Page 32 |
Page 33 |
Page 34 |
Page 35 |
Page 36 |
Page 37 |
Page 38 |
Page 39 |
Page 40 |
Page 41 |
Page 42 |
Page 43 |
Page 44 |
Page 45 |
Page 46 |
Page 47 |
Page 48 |
Page 49 |
Page 50 |
Page 51 |
Page 52 |
Page 53 |
Page 54 |
Page 55 |
Page 56 |
Page 57 |
Page 58 |
Page 59 |
Page 60 |
Page 61 |
Page 62 |
Page 63 |
Page 64 |
Page 65 |
Page 66 |
Page 67 |
Page 68 |
Page 69 |
Page 70 |
Page 71 |
Page 72 |
Page 73 |
Page 74 |
Page 75 |
Page 76 |
Page 77 |
Page 78 |
Page 79 |
Page 80 |
Page 81 |
Page 82 |
Page 83 |
Page 84 |
Page 85 |
Page 86 |
Page 87 |
Page 88 |
Page 89