SOUTHERN TECH 100
®
The future will be cloudy and changeable . . . with potential outbreaks of dust
No, that headline is not a weather forecast, but a view of the technology-driven business world of the future according to eminent futurologist Dr Ian Pearson
Speaking at a Southern Tech 100 dinner in Reading, Dr Pearson astounded the invited guests with a series of thought-provoking predictions of how today‘s technology might advance and develop in coming years, writes John Burbedge.
These included: • Tomorrow‘s technology will be incorporated into clothes and fashion accessories
• Miniaturisation of technology will ultimately lead to ‘smart dust‘ – devices that actually can‘t be seen by the human eye
• Cloud technology will permeate all aspects of business and social communications and data storage
• IT technologies will increasingly converge, so too will actual and virtual worlds
• Augmented reality glasses and visors will transform personal communication and knowledge
• 3D-printing will revolutionise local manufacturing
• Business models will become more ad-hoc and disparate
• Adaptability and agility will become key business qualities.
Although some of the developments that Dr Pearson suggested sounded like science fiction, he pointed out that much of the technology for these things actually already existed. ”The future timescales are not easily predicted but such technological progress is feasible. And, where there is a willingness you can get development very quickly.”
The pace of technological change was already evident, he stressed: ”It has taken only a few years to reduce computing devices from something the size of a transit van to a micro-chip. Fifteen years ago no-one had a mobile phone; in fifteen years no-one will have a mobile phone.”
Miniaturisation would enable tiny computers and devices to be combined with clothing and personal accessories. Electronic
jewellery could help monitor and relay a wide variety of data, and move the BYOD trend in businesses to new levels.
Increasing computing miniaturisation could also present greater espionage risks, said Pearson, with ‘smart dust‘ devices being built to a size below the human vision limit of 0.1mm. ”Small specks of smart dust can be concealed anywhere.”
Advanced technology would be increasingly built into everyday items, he suggested, aided by the development of 3D-printing, which with its rapid prototyping and fabrication would bring major new opportunities in the manufacturing sector.
Virtual games technology with its advanced interfaces and display interaction would be key to future IT-side convergence, added Pearson.
Greater adoption of cloud technologies, miniaturisation and virtualisation would create an explosion of commercial opportunities, leading to a change in the structure and nature of companies. ”Every industry now is thinking: How can we decompose and make things more cloudy to gain business benefits?”
The worldwide nature of advancing Internet technology would also lead to business and social group restructuring internationally, with a much wider range of business types developing. Change will become a constant management challenge, and being agile rather than best in class might be an advantageous ambition in disruptive developing sectors.
Personal augmented reality (AR) with its input of computer- generated sensory and data input could help create urban environments of ‘digital air‘. Shoppers wearing AR glasses, visors or active contact lenses, for example, could gain additional information about
THE BUSINESS MAGAZINE – SOLENT & SOUTH CENTRAL – APRIL 2013
19
Top left: Dr Ian Pearson
Above (from left): Anthony Donohue (Barclays), Tim Clark (Pitmans), Dr Ian Pearson (futurologist), Sue Staunton (James Cowper), David Murray (The Business Magazine) and David Bloxham (GCS)
their surroundings displayed virtually, to enhance their actual observations in the real world.
”AR will entirely merge the physical world with the virtual world. That convergence will be far bigger than the one that created the WorldWideWeb.”
In ‘digital air‘ environments parallel web ‘sponge nets‘ might enable direct inter-device networking – an alternative Internet platform.
Such alternatives to the Internet might become important with the growing establishment of commercial ‘walled gardens‘ – closed software ecosystems that control entry and content for users. Apple, Amazon, Twitter, Facebook, and Google were all mentioned as using ‘walled gardens‘ within their operations to retain customers and get closer to them.
Pearson, while not criticising this commercial use of technology, noted that ”…we have a generation of kids growing up who think that everything of possible interest is all inside Facebook, which is a tiny ‘walled garden‘ inside our massive world.
”I love wandering around a stately home, but I want to be able to go to my own home afterwards,” he added, while supporting the need to maintain customer choice and open source knowledge sharing.
One other concern he voiced was the ability of network infrastructure providers to keep up with the pace and demand for technological progress.
Earlier, Pearson had informed dinner guests that around 85% of the predictions he had made in the 1990s have turned out to be reasonably accurate. ”And I think the technology industries represented in this room, with imagination and open eyes to what you can achieve tomorrow, have got a fantastic future.”
Dr Ian Pearson (professional details at
www.futurizon.com) was speaking at a Southern Tech 100 dinner hosted by ‘The Business Magazine‘ at The Forbury Hotel in Reading and sponsored by bankers Barclays, accountants and business advisers James Cowper, law firm Pitmans and recruitment specialist GCS.
www.businessmag.co.uk
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