Corn And Soybean Consumption
DR. DARREL GOOD Extension Economist University of Illinois
the final estimates. Prices will be primarily influenced by the current rate of consumption and expectations about consumption during the remainder of the mar- keting year. The actual rate of consumption will be revealed sporadically, and in some cases, slowly. Ex- pectations about future consumption will likely vary widely. For corn, the current supply forecast of 13.576 bil-
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lion bushels is 606 million bushels smaller than last year’s supply and the smallest supply in 5 years. As- suming that year-ending stocks will not be less than 5 percent of consumption, consumption of U.S. corn during the current marketing year will be limited to 12.93 billion bushels, 123 million bushels (about 1 percent) less than consumed last year. The USDA currently forecasts consumption at 12.71 billion bushels, 343 million bushels (2.6 percent) less than consumed last year. Exports are expected to be 235 million bushels (12.8 percent) smaller, feed and resid- ual use is expected to decline by 103 million bushels
outlook grain
ith the USDA’s October Crop Production re- port, corn and soybean supply forecasts for the 2011-12 marketing year are likely close to
(2 percent), ethanol and by product use is expected to decline by 20 million bushels (0.4 percent), and other food and industrial uses are expected to increase by 15 million bushels (1.1 percent). At 1.6 billion bushels, U.S. corn exports are ex-
pected to be at the lowest level in 9 years due to in- creased competition from larger corn and wheat exports from other origins. The largest increases are expected for Russia, Kazakhstan, and Ukraine due to a 40 percent in- crease in production over last year’s drought-reduced crops. To reach the USDA forecast of 1.6 billion bushels, U.S. corn exports need to average about 30.7 million bushels per week. Through the first 5 weeks of the marketing year, export in- spections averaged only 28 million bushels per week. New export sales, however, have been relatively large. Those sales averaged 50.2 mil- lion bushels per week for the two weeks ended Octo- ber 6. Sales of 10.3 million bushels to Mexico were reported on October 11 and sales of 35.4 million bushels to China and 11.5 million bushels to un- known destinations were reported on October 13. The weekly pace of new sales will have to average only about 17 million bushels to bring sales to 1.6 billion bushels. Ethanol production during the first 5.5 weeks of the
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marketing year was about 1 percent larger than dur- ing the same period last year, suggesting that corn consumption for ethanol and by-production produc- tion is progressing at about the same pace as last year. Current ethanol production margins are large and ethanol consumption is supported by favorable blending margins and strong exports. Ethanol pro- duction is expected to remain above the pace of a year ago through the first quarter of the marketing year. There is some uncertainty about production in 2012 as the blender’s tax credit expires. Feed and residual use of corn remains under a
cloud of uncertainty due to the extremely low level of consumption implied for the 2010-11 marketing year.
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Prices will be primarily influenced by the current rate of consumption and expectations about consumption during the remainder of the marketing year.
The placement of broiler-type chicks was 8.3 percent below the level of a year ago for the two weeks ended October 8. Cattle-on-feed numbers are expected to fall below the level of the previous year beginning in early 2012. The continuation of record high hog prices, however, should result in stable hog numbers for an extended period. The pace of feed consumption will not be re- vealed until the December Grain Stocks report is released in the sec- ond week of January. The supply of U.S. soybeans for
the 2011-12 marketing year is esti- mated at 3.25 billion bushels, 205 million smaller than last year’s sup- ply. Consumption will be limited to the 3.13 billion bushels projected by the USDA, 150 million bushels (4.7 percent) below the consump-
tion of a year ago. Almost all of that reduction (125 million bushels) is expected to be in the export mar- ket, reflecting increased competition from South American soybeans. The domestic crush is expected to decline by 13 million bushels, or 0.8 percent. The Census Bureau has discontinued the monthly
report of soybean crush so estimates will be based on monthly reports from the National Oilseed Processors Association. That report for September indicated an 11.7 percent year-over-year decline in the domestic crush. The pace will obviously have to accelerate in order to reach the USDA projection. The pace of U.S. soybean exports and export sales
are running well below the torrid pace of a year ago. China bought and imported large quantities of U.S. soybeans early in the marketing year last year. Ship- ments plus outstanding sales are currently about 25
CONTINUED ON PAGE 22
USDA Secretary Tom Vilsack Returns To Commodity Classic
expected crowd of more than 4,800 farmers and other attendees during the event’s General Session, to be held March 1 in Nashville, Tenn. “The secretary’s return for a third straight visit is
C
testament to the value of our grower constituency in Washington,” National Corn Growers Association President Garry Niemeyer said. “Given the concerns farmers have around the federal budget and 2012 farm bill discussions, the secretary’s message will be of great importance to attendees.” “We are privileged and honored to have Secretary
Vilsack as the keynote speaker for the Commodity Classic General Session,” said American Soybean Association President Alan Kemper. “The secretary’s visit will be a highlight of this dynamic event where farmers share ideas, network and learn about fu- ture trends in agriculture.” A forceful advocate for U.S. farmers, Vilsack was
appointed by President Barack Obama as the 30th Secretary of the U.S. Department of Agriculture and took office in January 2009. Prior to his appoint- ment, Vilsack served two terms as governor of Iowa. Commodity Classic is the nation's largest farmer-
led, farmer-focused conference and trade show, pre- sented annually by the National Corn Growers Association, American Soybean Association, Na- tional Association of Wheat Growers and National Sorghum Producers. The event offers a wide range of learning and networking opportunities for growers in the areas of production, policy, marketing, man- agement and stewardship – as well as showcasing the latest in equipment, technology and innovation. For more information, visit
www.CommodityClas-
sic.com.
∆ ST. LOUIS, MO.
ommodity Classic will once again have the op- portunity to welcome U.S. Secretary of Agricul- ture Tom Vilsack as a keynote speaker for an
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