FX TECHNICAL ANALYSIS SELECTED ASIAN FX RATES – FEATURED MARKET – AUD/CAD.
AUD/CAD broke beneath the 2001 bottom at .7539 to reach a new all-time low at .7181 in October 2008 before immediately rebounding to leave a failed downwards break. Losses from the July 2008 recovery peak at .9841 were then fully retraced over the following 12 months, extending to .9915 in November 2009 before retracing close to 50% of the rise to leave a higher low at .8582 in June 2010. A two-legged extension higher has followed, highs around 1.0207-1.0213 & 1.0533-1.0557 being followed by dips which leſt higher lows at .9641 and .9917 in March and August of this year. Price action is contained within a three year bullish channel with the 13, 52 & 260 week (3 month, 1 year & 5 year) moving averages remaining positively aligned. We favour a
continued advance over coming weeks and months, with 1.0649-1.0659 and 1.1272-1.1316 the next major target areas. Tese targets are a 61.8% projection of the .8582- 1.0213 rise measured from .9641 / 50% retracement of entire (1981-2008) 1.4137-.7181 decline and a 100% projection of the .8582-1.0213 rise measured from .9641 / 100% projection of .7181-.9915 measured from .8582. To weaken the bullish outlook we need to see a third failure to clear the 1.0533-1.0557 area followed by a reversal under previous resistance-turned-support around the 1.0132- 1.0213 area. At present we favour a dip towards the latter support area to mark the start of a fresh advance.
Steve Jarvis
MAJOR TRENDS AND TARGETS FOR MAJOR CROSS-RATES As at 08 September USD/IDR USD/SGD USD/MYR USD/THB AUD/CAD AUD/NZD EUR/AUD EUR/NZD
Current level 8570
1.2130 2.9940 30.020 1.0470 1.2735 1.3150 1.6750
76 FX TRADER MAGAZINE October - December 2011
Major trend Down Down Down Down Up
Sideways Down Down
Major target 8000 & 7695
1.1966 & 1.1327 2.7550 & 2.5076 29.325 & 25.000 1.1316 & 1.2000
1.1500 & 1.0550 1.4308 & 1.2886
Trend change level 9090
1.3254 3.1700 31.200 .9641
1.2105 / 1.3233 1.5456 1.9568
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