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FX Fundamental Analysis


are worried about the potentially devastating economic effects of impending public sector layoffs, reportedly now set higher at 100,000 jobs, a larger number by 20,000 than had originally been projected but now demanded by the EU and the ECB as a precondition for Greece receiving the next tranche (EUR 8bio) of bailout funds.


Gold spikes: “double-tops hold while triple tops fold”


pressure on USD Libors and the USD currency itself should debtors decide to repay by buying Dollars in the market. Whatever the outcome it’s hard to see much topside for the EUR/USD rate all the while questions of ability to repay debt and rescheduling/ restructuring mechanisms unfold. Not unsurprisingly in the midst of such uncertain conditions. Gold added to previous gains as prices spiked higher by around 20% in a short-covering frenzy, Venezuela adding to global concerns of a demand-driven short squeeze by requesting physical delivery of its gold reserves, held within the vaults of esteemed North American and British banks.


We spoke about a gold bubble in the last issue and who knows, perhaps the double top at around $1,900 per ounce may yet be indicative of something bigger going on, with a realistic/conservative trading caveat: double-tops hold while triple tops fold.


As previously discussed and with Photo REUTERS - John Kolesidis 10 FX TRADER MAGAZINE October - December 2011


fears now realized, an escalation in social unrest has taken place across parts of Europe, beginning in the UK at the end of July and is now, unfortunately, gaining further traction in other countries, most notably of course in Greece; people


As Greece looks poised to fall to its knees financially, the honeymoon may already be over for the IMF’s new chief Christine Lagarde given potential association with her home nation’s defiant and obvious lack of support for the packages being


An escalation in social unrest has taken place across parts of Europe, gaining further traction in other countries, most notably of course in Greece.


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