TECHNICAL ANALYSIS FX EMERGING MARKETS – FEATURED MARKET – USD/RUR.
USD/RUR extended the recovery from the 23.130 extreme low recorded in July 2008 to reach a peak of 36.353 in February 2009, before undergoing a two-legged retreat to 30.523 (June 2009) and 28.603 (November 2009), interrupted by a lower top at 33.076 (July 2009). A two- legged recovery eventually topped out at 31.946 in June 2010, with a resumption of losses having commenced from there. A breakdown extended to 27.154 in May 2011, this being an almost exact 61.8% Fibonacci extension of the initial 36.353-28.603 decline measured from 31.946, ahead of a multi-month base pattern being traced out and completed by August’s break above May’s 28.545 lower top. 30.169 has so far capped gains and potentially this marks a failed upwards
break above a 2 ½ year downtrend connecting 36.353 & 31.575. However, successfully leaving a higher low now by support-turned-resistance in the 28.545-28.603 area may set up a renewed recovery to a minimum of the 30.523-30.896 area and possibly to retest the 2010 tops at 31.575-31.949. However, failure to clear the recent high at 30.169 and then the 30.523-30.896 region ahead of a reversal 28.545-28.603 will increase the likelihood of a renewed decline over coming weeks and months in the direction of 26.251, the 76.4% Fibonacci retracement of the entire 23.130-36.353 2008- 2009 rise, possibly accelerating towards 24.196 on a clean break, this lower target being the 100% projection of the 36.353-28.603 decline measured from the 31.946 lower top.
FX
MAJOR TRENDS AND TARGETS FOR FX EMERGING MARKETS As at 08 September EUR/CZK EUR/HUF EUR/PLN EUR/RON USD/ILS USD/RUR USD/TRL USD/ZAR
Current level 24.330 276.45 4.2335 4.2480 3.6880 29.595 1.7645 7.1465
Major trend Down
Sideways Sideways Sideways Down Down Up
Sideways
Major target 22.925 & 19.259
Trend change level 25.387
3.2043 & 2.7358 26.251 & 24.196 2.0626 & 2.2600
260.96 / 291.97 3.8238 / 4.3280 3.8354 / 4.3892 3.7484 30.896 1.5007
6.4318 / 8.2653
FX TRADER MAGAZINE October - December 2011 75
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