FX TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
and the price started to move up while it was crossing up the strong resistance Kijun-Sen line. The price reached the body of the Kumo at the end of July and stayed inside it till the middle of August. Then a confirmed bullish Kumo breakout happened and the price reached its 3 months high on the 19th of August. After that it fell down to the flat top Kumo and then broke out on the downside right in the beginning of September and moved down more than 300 pips after the breakout.
GBPUSD Prospect
The picture is quite mixed. While the Monthly chart is mostly bearish, the Weekly chart has just turned from bullish to neutral and the Daily chart is strongly bearish too. It seems that the down movements are more probable but it is important to keep in mind that the Weekly Senkou Span B and the Monthly Kijun-Sen levels are very strong support levels and the price should close under these to confirm the bearish direction.
USDCHF Retrospect
On the Monthly USDCHF chart movements were bearish months
as during the the previous
clearly last
3 down trend continued. The price was Figure 8: USDCHF Weekly 66 FX TRADER MAGAZINE October - December 2011
below the Kumo cloud and the Kijun-Sen, the Chikou Span was below all Ichimoku components and the price, and the Kumo future was bearish too. The Swiss intervention in September moved the price a bit back but the picture remained the same and the price hasn’t even touched the Monthly Kijun-Sen line. On the Weekly USDCHF chart the picture is very similar. The price was moving below the Kumo and the Chikou Span was
staying constantly below the price. The only difference
here is that because of the intervention, the price crossed up the Kijun-Sen line. But as the Chikou Span hasn’t crossed the price up, the bearish picture remained the same. On the Daily chart the price was on a clear and confirmed down trend till the middle of August. Then the the price started to move up a bit, but bounced back from the bottom of the Kumo. Finally the intervention pushed
the price
through the Kumo and a valid Kumo breakout happened on the 8th of September.
Figure 7: USDCHF Monthly
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