TECHNICAL ANALYSIS MAJOR CROSS-RATES - FEATURED MARKET - EUR/CHF
EUR/CHF recorded an all-time traded high at 1.6828 in October 2007, then completed a top pattern and began to retrace the rise from the September 2001 all- time traded low at 1.4401. Te base of the (brown) 6 year bull channel (drawn off higher lows at 1.4502 & 1.5454) was cleanly breached in February 2008, initially reaching 1.5350 before recovering to leave a lower double top at 1.6376 / 1.6369. From there the downtrend gathered pace, accelerating through 1.5350 & 1.4401 to reach an initial new all-time traded low at 1.4322 in October 2008, before correcting to 1.5881. From there a succession of new all-time lows has been recorded with price action being contained within an (orange) bearish channel. Attempts to develop a double bottom at 1.2405 / 1.2421 were ended a
few weeks ago and already the base of the (orange) bearish channel is under attack. Although the (red) 13 week, (green) 52 week and long-term (blue) 260 week (5 year) are bearishly aligned and falling, bullish divergence is noted on the MACD indicator. But for now the risk remains for a bounce to leave a lower top below the recent 1.3203 / 1.3239 double top (and ideally by former support at 1.2875-1.3074) ahead of an additional retreat towards 1.1810 (100% of 1.3834- 1.2405 decline measured from 1.3239 and possibly the 1.1571-1.1607 region, this target area being generated by several downside projections from the recent 1.2405- 1.2421 to 1.3203-1.3239 range.
Steve Jarvis
FX
MAJOR TRENDS AND TARGETS FOR MAJOR CROSS-RATES As at 14 June EUR/GBP GBP/JPY EUR/JPY EUR/CHF EUR/NOK EUR/SEK
Current level 0.8805 131.7
115.95 1.2115 7.8
9.1175
Major trend Sideways Down
Sideways Down Down Down
Major target 118.92 & 100
1.1571 & 1.0400 7.2500 & 7.1000 8.2500 & 8.0000
Trend change level .8286 / .9411 145.93
105.46 / 127.92 1.3239 8.2551 9.4253
FX TRADER MAGAZINE July - September 2011
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