FX TECHNICAL ANALYSIS TECHNICALOUTLOOK SELECTED ASIAN FX RATES – FEATURED MARKET – USD/SGD
USD/SGD has headed steadily lower from the 1.5577 recovery peak established in March 2009, this being close to the (blue) falling 260 week (5 year) moving average. Te August 2010 breakdown through the July 2008 extreme low at 1.3452 has triggered a move in the direction of the base of the (purple) long-term bearish channel, with a (brown) shorter-term bearish channel having also worked well since the 1.5577 lower top.
1.2215 has so far been reached and
although a potential short-term base is now being traced out, which could set up a recovery towards former support
at the November 2010 low of 1.2818, possibly overshooting towards 1.3036 (the mid-point of the 1.2818-1.3254 rally), at this stage MACD remains firmly bearish. We see the risk of a subsequent resumption of underlying losses to yet new lows. 1.1966 is the next major downside projection, marking 100% of the 1.7063-1.3452 decline measured from the 1.5577 lower top. Te base of the (purple) long-term bear channel is set to coincide with 1.1966 in mid August. A clean break beneath 1.1966 may trigger an accelerated decline, with the possibility of parity if current trends persist until the end of 2012.
MAJOR TRENDS AND TARGETS FOR SELECTED ASIAN FX RATES As at 14 June USD/IDR USD/SGD USD/MYR USD/THB AUD/CAD AUD/NZD EUR/AUD EUR/NZD
Current level 8538
1.2325 3.033
30.455 1.037
1.3015 1.357
1.7665
Major trend Down Down Down Down Up Up
Down Down
Major target 8000 & 7500
1.1966 & 1.0000 2.7550 & 2.5076 29.325 & 25.000 1.1316 & 1.2000 1.4684 & 1.5000 1.1500 & .9859 1.6342 & 1.5000
Trend change level 9090
1.3254 3.17 31.2
0.9641 1.2642 1.5456 1.9568
76 FX TRADER MAGAZINE July - September 2011
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