COMMODITIES FX CORN Exporters (million USD) US
Argentina Brazil
Ukraine India
13.357 3.910 2.292 1.483 674
Other main exporters:
South Africa, Paraguay, Serbia, Canada, EU-27
WORLD 24.485 WHEAT Exporters (mio USD) US EU-27
Canada Australia Argentina
9.716 6.160 4.760 4.060 2.380
Other main exporters: Kzakhstan, Russia, Ukraine, Turkey, Brazil
WORLD 34.762
during the past decade had been China’s voracious appetite for industrial raw materials, which has accelerated since the country joined the World Trade Organization in 2001. This has led the country’s share of world consumption of not only industrial metals, but all major raw materials to increase substantially.
Agricultural Products By 2050, the United Nations estimates that the world’s population will reach 9.5 billion people compared to approximately 6.5 billion today. India will represent 20% of this growth compared to 4% for China.
Importers (mio USD)
Egypt Brazil
Indonesia Algeria Japan
2.800 1.820 1.568 1.484 1.456
Other main importers: EU-27, South Korea, Morocco, Nigeria, Mexico
WORLD 34.347
The rise in population levels will lead to an additional 1 billion tons of soft grain consumption either directly as food or indirectly as a feedstock for cattle. Consequently, DB estimates that just over one third of the total growth in soft grains consumption between now and 2050 will be driven by demographics. Rising
per capita
incomes across the developing world will also lead to an improvement in dietary intake such that protein demand between now and 2050 will be more than double. This will be another powerful source of boosting grain demand going forward. The challenge will be to raise
Importers (million USD) Japan Mexico
South Korea EU-27 Egypt
4.342 2.427 2.157 1.753 1.456
Other main importers: Taiwan, Colombia, Iran, Malaysia, Algeria WORLD 24.729
agricultural production given the constraints of land and water at the same time that urbanization rates are rising. Urbanization has been partly responsible for the steady decline in land dedicated to agricultural production globally. In fact since the 1960s, the size of agricultural land per capita globally has been cut by half. To a large degree this has been offset by a significant improvement in agricultural yields in certain parts of the world. Even so, we expect significant challenges lie ahead not least given the scarcity of water resources, particularly across Asia.
Livestock Products
Of the five broad commodity sectors, livestock is one of the smallest in terms of production, world trade and futures turnover. The United States is the world’s largest producer of beef followed by Brazil and the EU-27 countries. However, the global trade in meat products is small compared to world production. Today Brazil is the world’s leading exporter of beef. Although per capita consumption of beef and veal is low in China compared to otherdeveloped and developing countries,
the country
is the world’s largest producer and consumer of pork. Indeed the country’s per capita consumption of pork exceeds that of the US and Japan. The livestock industry has had to contend with a significant increase in feedstock prices such as grains over the past few years.
Alessandro Balsotti FX TRADER MAGAZINE July - September 2011 43
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