INSTITUTIONAL REFORM IN THE BURKINABÈ COTTON SECTOR 337
Table 12.9 Comparing actual events to counterfactual outcomes, 1996 and 2006 Counterfactual Counterfactual Counterfactual
Actual events (reform + crisis)
Outcome 1996 Household cultivated land
(hectares) Total cultivated land
(thousands of hectares) Household cotton land share (percent)
Cotton area (thousands of hectares)
Food area (thousands of hectares)
Cotton production
(thousands of metric tons) Maize production
(thousands of metric tons) Millet production
(thousands of metric tons) Groundnut production (metric tons)
Sorghum production (metric tons)
Household one-year
cotton income (2006 US$) Household one-year
food income (2006 US$) Household credit cost for
year income (2006 US$) Agricultural one-year
income per active worker (2006 US$) Average net one-year
cotton income per active worker, 1996–2006 Percent food-secure households
Number of food-secure
people (thousands) Source: Authors.
Notes: These estimates are computed for the average household cultivating cotton in 2006, including those who were outside cotton production in 1996, to derive total net effects. The 1996 levels are different across scenarios because they include cotton households that entered cotton production during the reform and exclude those that exited. Intrafood crop allocation on food areas is assumed to be constant over time and across scenarios. n.a. means not applicable because the row is for averages.
973.1 1,222.1 +249 20
56
194.6 778.5 208.1 459.7 159.4 89.7
286.4 +36.3 +36 684.4 +489.8 +154.7
–5 +28 –25.1 +336.2
537.7 –240.8 +51.4 766.0 +557.9 380.7
–79.0
218.4 +59.0 65.0
243.9 983.6
418.3 1,627.6 +1,209.3 975.8 156.4
668.2 +511.8
one year (2006 US$) Household agricultural one- 1,237.7 1,943.0 +705.3