INSTITUTIONAL REFORM IN THE BURKINABÈ COTTON SECTOR 335 Figure 12.2 A methodology for estimating counterfactual scenarios
Source: Authors.
Notes: Cx is the elasticity of output with respect to other inputs and CL is the elasticity of output with respect to land. In the simulations these elasticities transmit the effect of the various assumptions that we make in Table 12.9 about the benefits of reform.
various determinants of farm production and profitability. The characteristics of the reform and counterfactual scenarios are listed in Table 12.8. The channels of impact include access to and use of inputs, prices received by farmers, and land use patterns, including access to land (which is important for return migration scenarios and ethnicity factors). Clearly the differences between the counterfactual and reform scenarios are a matter of judgment, but we believe the previous two sections and existing research (Brambilla and Porto 2005; Savadogo and Sakurai 2007; Kaminski and Thomas 2010) have provided a sound basis for the assumptions listed in Table 12.8. All counterfactual results are displayed in Table 12.9.
Counterfactuals on Land Use
Using the bivariate ordered probit model of Kaminski and Thomas (2010) we estimate changes in land use patterns and in total cultivated land by recalibrating the values of the model’s explanatory variables according to the various scenarios assumed in Table 12.8.
Our first finding is that much more new land was cultivated because of the intervention and the Ivorian crisis. With the growth of the active labor force, migra- tion, and mechanization, we estimate that the new land cultivated was 215,000 hectares greater than it would have been without the reforms (this amount is calcu-