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A baseline study of stencil and scr
Continually improving global demand
een print processes for wafer backside coating
Walt Custer and Jon Custer-Topai
Continually improving
global demand
There are many signs that business As semiconductor demand increases, IC equipment growth forecasts by region by
conditions are gradually improving. Both Insights recently forecasted a significant year. 2010 still points to resumed growth!
the U.S. (Chart 1) and world (Chart 2) increase in World IC Capacity Utilization
purchasing managers’ indices are again in the second half of this year (Chart 8). In end markets
in “growth” territory, and global business September, Gartner Dataquest modified its
Global Revenues:
confidence (Chart 3) has risen significantly. 2009 and 2010 chip forecasts, tempering
• Enterprise router revenue fell 9%
Electronic equipment demand is finally the magnitude of its predicted 2009
q/q to US $709 million in 2Q’09.—
strengthening in all regions (Chart 4). downturn and predicting 34% growth next
Infonetics Research
SE Asia is leading the recovery, but 3/12 year (Chart 9).
• Ethernet switch market grew 5%
growth rates in all areas “bottomed” earlier World printed circuit growth (Chart
sequentially in 2Q’09 to US $3.4
in 2009 and now are moving towards real 10) is not yet in positive territory (3/12
billion.—Infonetics Research
growth territory (3/12 > 1.0). In the USA, > 1), but all regions (led by SE Asia) are
• Optical network hardware revenue
both electronic equipment orders and now improving. In North America, PCB
increased 7% q/q to US $3.4 billion in
shipments saw their low points in 3/12 order growth is “cycling back” to approach
2Q’09.—Infonetics Research
growth in 1Q’09 and are clearly improving electronic equipment (end market) growth.
• Server market declined 30.1% y/y to
(Chart 5). However the domestic 2003 to 2009 PCB
US $9.8 billion in 2Q’09.—IDC
Forecasts are being increased. Gartner trend is disturbing. N. American PCB
• Combined printer, copier and
recently increased its world personal growth “cycles” above and below electronic
multifunctional product shipments
computer outlook (Chart 6), noting equipment (Chart 11). This cycling has
market fell 20% to 51.3 million units
significant momentum approaching year- occurred three times recently (2004, 2006
in 1H’09.—Gartner
end 2009. & 2008), but the trend line is down as SE
• E-paper displays are projected to
The semiconductor business cycle Asia continues to take PCB market share
increase from US $431 million in
reached its low point in February (Chart 7) from the USA. The next domestic PCB
2009 to US $9.6 billion in 2018.—
and has been steadily increasing thereafter. “growth” peak (in 2010?) may actually be in
DisplaySearch
Until this 3/12 reaches 1.0, world chip negative territory (3/12 < 1.0).
• Set-top box shipments are expected to
shipments will not actually be growing Charts 12 & 13 give Ed Henderson’s
grow 4.2% to 136.7 million units in
but they are headed in the right direction. most recent GDP and electronic
2009.—iSuppli
20090901 20090906
U.S. "Purchasing Managers" Index Global "Purchasing Managers" Index
DIFFUSION INDEX DIFFUSION INDEX
64 58
62
56
60
54
58
56
52
EXPANSION
54 50
52 CONTRACTION
48
50
48
46
46 44
44
EXPANSION
42
42
40
40
CONTRACTION
38
38
"The revised breakeven point for the overall economy is a PMI of 41.2 percent. A
36
PMI over 41.2 percent indicates an expanding overall economy. A PMI below 41.2
36
34
percent indicates the overall economy is declining." 1/21/09
34
32
30
32
1 4 7101 4 7101 4 7 101 4 7101 4 7101 4 7 101 4 7101 4 7101 4 7 101 4 7101 4 7101 4 7101 4 7101 4 7 101 4 7101 4 7
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 07 08 09
Institute for Supply Management JPMorgan
www.ism.ws/
Chart 1. Chart 2.
20 – Global SMT & Packaging – October 2009 www.globalsmt.net
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