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The Advantage Conference • September 18-20 • Radisson Edwardian Heathrow Hotel
ECONOMIC OUTLOOK.
BOOKING TRENDS.
Neil paints grim
Uncertainty will fuel domestic sales
picture of future
PROLONGED uncertainty in the UK economy is “People look carefully at their own personal
likely to ensure the shift to domestic holidays debt, income and job security,” he said.
A SUSTAINED period of weakness for sterling continues for at least the next 12 months, a “People are spending less on travel; they are
against the euro and dollar was predicted leading operator predicted. spending much later, as and when they can
by former Sunday Times editor and BBC Richard Carrick, chief executive of Hoseasons, afford it; and they are opting for shorter
broadcaster Andrew Neil. told the Advantage conference that his business durations and travelling shorter distances.
The prediction was among a series of bleak was 30% up year-on-year, with agent sales up 25%. “Self-catering in the UK ticks all those boxes
forecasts for the UK economy, which Neil He further claimed that Hoseasons sold out in and it will continue to do so as long as insecurity
(pictured) said was in unprecedented debt that August, with trading limited only by the amount prevails in people’s own personal circumstances.
would take a generation to pay off. of stock available to the operator. I do not see that going away, certainly for the
He said the crunch would come this autumn And for 2010 he said sales to date were 70% next 12 to 18 months.
when the Bank of England was due to stop up on this time last year. “We will see rising unemployment and
buying the UK’s debt through the “quantitative Carrick added that consumer behaviour had increasing insecurity at household level so the
easing” process and the government would have changed, and that this was not linked to the UK’s conditions that favour the UK short-break
to start marketing its debt on the international weather and erroneous heatwave predictions. market should continue.”
money markets.
If successful, foreign investors would have to
buy sterling and exchange rates would improve.
But Neil feared the UK’s debt mountain, which
threatens its triple A credit rating, is a symptom
of a country in long-term decline which investors
would be wary of.
He said Labour would suffer a heavy loss at
next year’s general election and a new Tory
administration would raise VAT to 20%. Despite a buoyant summer for Hoseasons, Richard Carrick (centre) said: “People are spending less on travel”
Advantage delegates were warned to expect
the new government to say the state of the
nation’s finances was “worse than we thought”.
GROUP DEALS.
And Neil said despite signs of economic
recovery public confidence would take more time
Consortium denied cruise ‘clout’
to return.
“The public fundamentally does not believe ADVANTAGE falls short of capitalising on its Gill’s Cruise Centre, and Barrhead Travel and
politicians, so even when they are told the situa- position as the UK’s number two retailer of Stewart Travel in Scotland.
tion is improving they won’t believe it,” he said. cruise because its biggest members are CCS sales director Giles Hawke said the policy
Neil agreed with commentators that excluded from some key group deals. might be reconsidered if consortia such as
unemployment would continue to rise and would In a cruise session ahead of the main Advantage operated more like multiples.
top the three million mark by the next election – conference on Friday, the consortium’s leisure “Consortia are all treated the same and will
expected in May 2010 – and interest rates would director, Julia Lo Bue-Said, claimed that be so unless they behave in a more structured
rise next year, but not beyond 2%. Advantage had 15% market share. way so we know we will be supported by every
That equates to revenue of £200 million and single member,” he said.
£8 million in commission. And Advantage In January, Advantage decided to disband its
receives £3 million of marketing funds annually cruise specialist division to open up its supplier
from leading lines. terms to the entire membership.
But Complete Cruise Solution, the trade arm It continues to push certain deals, like its
for P&O Cruises, Cunard, Princess Cruises and latest favourable group terms agreed with CCS
Ocean Village, does not include its largest on 20 departures, through selected members.
members in group terms. Despite the sector’s growing importance
“Can you imagine the clout we would have the consortium’s cruise product consultant,
if we could go in as one?” Lo Bue-Said asked. Jason Peters, said he was disappointed by
“But we cannot leverage that as some of how seldom members used deals posted on the
our biggest members are outside of those consortium’s member website.
deals.” “All it takes is for you to have a daily look at
Advantage has some of the UK’s leading that page and turn that information round to
retailers of cruise in its membership including your clientele straight away,” he said.
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