Swinging the Swing States
T
HE GOP MUST WOO BACK KEY STATES THAT FLIPPED OVER TO BARACK OBAMA.
Indiana probably will return to the GOP tent, but others appear to present major demographic dilemmas:
Colorado Florida New Nevada North Ohio Virginia
9
ELECTORAL 27 ELECTORAL
Mexico
5 ELECTORAL
Carolina 20 ELECTORAL
13 ELECTORAL
VOTES VOTES
5 ELECTORAL
VOTES
15 ELECTORAL VOTES
VOTES
2004: Bush, 2004: Bush, VOTES 2004: Bush, VOTES 2004: Bush,
2004: Bush,
51.69% to 47.02% 52.1% to 47.09%
2004: Bush,
50.47% to 47.88% 2004: Bush, 50.81% to 48.71%
53.68% to 45.48%
2008: Obama,
2008: Obama,
49.84% to 49.05% 2008: Obama, 57.02% to 43.58%
2008: Obama,
2008: Obama,
52.5% to 45.9%
50.9% to 48.4%
2008: Obama,
55.1% to 42.7% 2008: Obama, 51.3% to 47.1%
51.8% to 47.3%
Democrats
The GOP needs
54.8% to 44.4% Sarah Palin was 49.8% to 49.6%
Protecting the
D.C. types see
have been very
to hone its
This year’s
expected to It took a perfect aspirations of
Northern Virginia’s
successful in
appeal to growing
lopsided outcome
bolster McCain’s storm — Bush’s Ohio’s “Joe the
cobalt hue seeping
registering new
numbers of urban
suggests that
appeal in Western unpopularity, plumbers,” and
southward. For
voters, particularly
voters without
the state’s 27.3
states. Would the record African- fi nding free-
40 years before
in strongholds
alienating the
percent Latino
GOP fare better in American turnout, market solutions
Obama, Virginia
such as Denver
party faithful. One
voters are sending
Nevada with her and the economic to Rust Belt trade
supported ruby-red
and Boulder
solution: Wait
a message. Can
at the top of the meltdown — woes, would go a
presidents. The
County. Bottom
for Bush fatigue
the GOP compete
ticket in 2012? to turn North long way toward
prodigal can be
line: The GOP
to ebb, then
in border states Carolina Tar Heel restoring the
wooed back to the
must improve its
nominate popular
while promoting blue. Democrats GOP brand in this
GOP ranks, but
ground game.
former Gov. Jeb
English as will be hard- critical state.
each new federal
Bush.
a national pressed to repeat
job makes it more
language? that in 2012.
diffi cult.
GOP traditionally counted in the win that a senior GOP congressman can- The conservative base of the party
column by August — Virginia, New didly shared similar fears with him. had failed to criticize its leaders in
Hampshire, North Carolina, and “There’s not a safe Republican seat in Congress and President Bush as they
Colorado — fell to the Democrats. the country,” Frum was told. “I don’t embraced big government at home
If not for eleventh-hour rallying mean we’re going to lose all of them. and nation-building abroad.
of the party base by vice-presidential But we could lose any of them.” The statistics don’t lie. President
candidate Sarah Palin, Republican And lose them they did. Bush, with a strong assist from the
insiders say, the damage might have For conservative advocates and Republicans who controlled Congress
been far worse. party watchers, the election of 2008 between 2001 and 2007, oversaw the
The damage on Nov. 4 wasn’t is the open sore they can’t stop pick- largest increase in social and discre-
limited to the GOP’s presidential ing at, the car wreck they can’t turn tionary spending in history. Bigger
ticket. While McCain and a select away from. than FDR, bigger than LBJ. Reagan
few of his faithful holed up in the “We conservatives ride in the would have been
Biltmore Hotel in Phoenix watching vehicle that is the Republican Party. appalled.
their hopes dashed, the Republican The vehicle has crashed,” Connie Conservatives
Party lost at least six seats in the Mackey, senior vice president for also embraced a
Senate and 20 in the House. When FRC Action at the Family Research war in Iraq that
the dust and confetti cleared, the Council, tells Newsmax. The wreck had no clear
Democrats were poised to take a was unavoidable because, as Mackey objectives or exit
nearly fi libuster-proof Senate major- puts it: “Those driving didn’t keep strategy, one
“
Some party
ity into the next Congress. their eyes on the prize.” that was more in
leaders
The losses were staggering, but “Some party leaders became a keeping with a
became a
not completely unexpected. little too self-concerned and didn’t Wilsonian view of
little too self-
“McCain is losing in a way that keep their promise to stick to con- saving the world
threatens to take the entire Republican servative principles,” says Mackey, a for democracy
concerned and
Party down with him,” David Frum, pre-eminent voice among Christian than protecting
didn’t keep
former Bush speechwriter and author conservatives. “Conservatives will American inter-
their promise
of Comeback: Conservatism That Can have soul-searching discussions over ests abroad.
to stick to
Win Again, predicted in the fi nal days whether to repair this crashed vehicle So it was in
of the campaign. or to seek another one.” this atmosphere
conservative
Frum told The Washington Post Deciphering the political-speak: of party turmoil
principles.
”
is no longer over on the right. It’s in the mainstream now. 3/1/1985 ++ Balancing the budget is like protect-
JANUARY 2009 / NEWSMAX
55
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