On the negative side, historically the second year after a presidential election (in this case 2018) has had double the risk of recession than the other three years of the cycle. This correlation adds a bit of jeopardy to our forecast. However, the odds still favor the continuation of the expansion.


At this rate, print markets will add about $3 billion in additional sales in each of the next two years. This rate of sales growth should sustain the cur- rent 3.0% profit rate on sales earned by the average printer and the 10.0% earned by industry profit leaders (those in the top 25% of profitability).


“The early consensus among economists calls for slightly higher growth in GDP and somewhat higher inflation and job growth.”


All things considered, I believe the expansion should continue into 2017 and 2018. Additionally, the economy will likely pick up speed from regu- latory and tax reform plus some possible fiscal stim- ulus. The bottom line is GDP growth in the range of 2.7 to 3.0%, a significant jump from the expected 2.0% in 2016.


2016–2017 Print Markets Print markets will, of course, be helped by the bump in the economy. There will be some down- ward pressure because of the drop in election print, but the upswing in the economy should offset this. Our expectations are for print markets to grow nominally (including print inflation) at a rate of 2.0 to 2.2% over the next two years.


The Magazine 5


WINTER 2017


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