Now What? Post-Election and Print Market Outlook By Ronnie H. Davis, Ph.D., Senior Vice President and Chief Economist, Printing Industries of America


Now that the election is over, it's time for a fresh assessment of the direction of the econo- my and print markets. First, the obvious ques- tion—do the election results matter for the economy and print? Te answer is “Yes!” While the fundamen-


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tals of the economy remain constant, new polit- ical priorities impact the economy and various industries in incremental yet significant ways.


Trumponomics 101 Based on campaign rhetoric, there are three key policy areas that likely will impact the economy in the short term (2017–2018):


• Regulatory reform—rolling back and easing of various business regulations


• Tax reform—particularly corporate taxes • Stimulus—spending on infrastructure


Three other policy priorities may take a little longer to develop beyond 2018:


• Trade policy reform WHAT TO EXPECT


In 2017 Stronger economic growth and an increase in print sales by around 2.0%.


For the Next Few Years Reduced business regulations, business tax reductions, infrastructure spending increases, and continued 2.0% growth for print.


• Monetary policy reform—return to normalcy and slightly higher interest rates


• Competitive policy changes—antitrust enforcement


So how will these impact the economy? There are many unknowns as to what might actually happen and which campaign promises will be kept. The early consensus among economists calls for slightly higher growth in GDP and somewhat higher inflation and job growth. My own assessment is on the upper end of the consensus for each of these variables.


The 2017–2018 Economy The current economic expansion is now eight years old—one year beyond the average total length of the 11 post-war expansions, making it the eighth oldest. Does it have any life left? I believe the answer is yes for two main reasons. First, as discussed above, the Trumponomics policies should add some vigor to the previous trajectory. Second, the three longer expansions actually had higher average growth rates, so longer-run expansions need not be weak expansions.


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