HOT TOPIC Major sporting events
Number of flights
Number of % growth flights year-on-year
1999 142,424 2000 160,881 2001 162,537 2002 137,634 2003 145,031 2004 164,727 2005 158,386 2006 162,671 2007 174,294 2008 174,020 2009 185,768
-
13.0% 1.0%
-15.3% 5.4%
13.6% -3.8% 2.7% 7.1%
-0.2% 6.8%
continuing a trend of decline stretching back over the past five years. This decline has been mirrored by the
city’s number of flights, which dropped 8.7% in 2016 to 209,408. The falls come despite a 17.9% increase
in the number of carriers – to 33 for this year – operating out of Rio de Janeiro, although that may have been a correction to a 17.6% decline in carriers in 2015. Grant says: “Rio doesn’t look very
positive. The general collapse of the Brazilian economy is reflected in the level of frequency being operated down by some 14% compared with 2013 and capacity down by some five million seats per annum compared to the same year.”
Falling frequencies Similarly, London was not immune from a decline in vital airlift statistics when it hosted the Olympics in 2012. The sum of flights fell 0.7% year-on-year,
while the number of carriers serving the city dropped 2.7% to 145, although the sum of seats did increase 0.4% to 172.2 million. This dip seems even worse given that it
coincides with a broadly positive trend for growth as London recovered from the 2008 recession. Again, Grant believes it is these bigger facts that were to blame. He says: “London saw a reduction in
frequency in 2012 and only in 2014 was there any real upturn in either frequency or
capacity to the city – although once again I suspect underlying econometric factors were driving the pattern here.” It is only Beijing, which hosted the Olympics in 2008, that saw a positive impact on a city’s airlift capacity. Year-on-year, all the key factors
increased, with the number of carriers up by 13.8% to 74; market pairs up 9.3% to 200; the sum of seats grew 9% to 79.9 million; while frequencies were up by 7.8% to 426,119. However, compared with the broader
trend visible in the five years before and after the event, the figures are much less impressive, especially when one considers 2004 saw a boost in seat numbers of more than 20% as frequencies grew by 22%. Grant believes the fact that the growth
coincided with a booming economy was a far more important factor. He adds: “Beijing looks pretty positive
post the Olympics, but had a really strong underlying trend of growth before the event anyway – and, as we know, through the early part of the century has been an area of high economic growth. Distinguishing between underlying growth and a pure Olympic factor is not easy.” Perhaps the one clear winner from
being a games host since the turn of the millennium is Athens, which saw a 6.4% increase in carriers in 2004 compared with 2003, helping to drive a 13.6% increase
“London saw a reduction in frequency in 2012 and only in 2014 was there any real upturn in either frequency or capacity”
40 ISSUE 4 ROUTES NEWS 2016
routesonline.com w
Number of % growth flights year-on-year
2003 239,791 292,468 329,549 371,384
2004 2005 2006
2007 395,435 426,119 483,606 524,234 545,471
2008 2009 2010 2011
2012 579,919 604,094
2013 -
22.0% 12.7% 12.7% 6.5% 7.8%
13.5% 8.4% 4.1% 6.3% 4.2%
Number of % growth flights year-on-year
2007 1,051,683 2008 1,044,819 2009 975,477 2010 970,082 2011 974,343 2012 967,992 2013 977,124 2014 1,008,698 2015 1,049,368 1,088,328
2016 -
-0.7% -6.6% -0.6% 0.4%
-0.7% 0.9% 3.2% 4.0% 3.7%
Number of % growth flights year-on-year
2011 237,268 2012 256,321 2013 243,258 2014 233,094 2015 229,393 209,408
2016 - 8.0%
-5.1% -4.2% -1.6% -8.7%
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