North Africa
ASM DESTINATIONS
However, there have been modest declines in capacity from the start of this year and this grows worse when looking at the summer months. Overall international capacity into Egypt
rose 0.1% in the first quarter of 2016, but will decline 4.4% in the second quarter, 6.6% in the third quarter and 12% in the fourth quarter, according to current published schedules. This will mean overall international capacity in 2016 will be down 5.8% versus last year. The concerns over security safety at
Sharm el Sheikh and the cancellation of many flights is clear to see in the data. International departure seats from the airport were down 76.1% in the first quarter of this year versus the same period in 2015 from almost 340,000 to just over 80,000. Hurghada, where a knife attack at the Bella Vista Hotel in January, 2016, resulted in injuries to three foreign nationals, has also seen international seat capacity decline by almost a third in the same period. However, these massive declines have
Tunisia’s tourist trade has been hit by terrorism
between Egypt & Europe
International
Jan Feb Mar Apr
May Jun Jul
Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 FY
Source: Sabre Market Intelligence
capacity (2015) 276,802
243,194 277,522 353,240 296,098 298,104 336,080 314,439 372,558 296,502 292,172 232,109 797,518 947,442
1,023,077 820,783
3,588,820 International
capacity (2016) 181,829
163,485 179,148 181,522 205,835 210,514 237,914 236,647 227,818 231,204 222,116 233,301 524,462 597,871 702,379 686,621
2,511,333 % change
-34.3 -32.8 -35.4 -48.6 -30.5 -29.4 -29.2 -24.7 -38.9 -22.0 -24.0 0.5
-34.2 -36.9 -31.3 -16.3 -30.0
International capacity
been offset by growth elsewhere in Egypt. At the country’s main gateway of Cairo International Airport, international capacity was up 10.8% in the first quarter of 2016, an additional 245,000 seats, while significant year-on-year growth was recorded at Aswan and Assiut, the latter becoming the country’s fifth largest international arrival point by capacity in the process. There are 10 Egyptian airports that will handle scheduled international flights this summer. These will be linked to foreign markets by 72 different airlines, although 4 in 10 of all international flights planned in 2016 will be flown by national carrier EgyptAir.
Tunisia’s testing times
The situation in Tunisia mirrors that being seen in Egypt and international capacity into the country was up a modest 0.1% in the first quarter of this year, buoyed by a stronger performance in March. However, come the summer months, capacity will be notably down on last year, with October the only month showing a rise in capacity versus last year, based on published schedules. The declines are significant too.
International capacity in the second quarter will be down a massive 16.4% versus last year, with the third quarter and fourth quarter performing relatively better with 7.8% and 4.1% falls. This all equates to a forecasted annual 7.8% decline in international capacity into Tunisia for 2016, falling from 4.59 million seats in 2015 to 4.23 million this year. The second quarter has been marked by double-digit international capacity declines across all months, including a 20.6% fall in May and an expected decline of 20.8% in June. The fall has been mainly driven by the departure of Europe’s largest leisure carriers from the Tunisian market and
w
routesonline.com ROUTES NEWS 2016 ISSUE 4 35
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