TECH TALK NASA-IDENTIFIED MEGA DRIVERS THAT WILL SHAPE AVIATION By John Pawlicki I
n late 2013, NASA released a Blueprint for Transforming Global Aviation. Since programs like this tend to drive various government-funded aviation research programs, it is worth reviewing to see how well this plan might
aff ect the industry in the coming years. While government agencies are not known for their ability to forecast the long- term future accurately, neither is private industry. Any such calculated planning from any entity needs to be viewed for what it is — namely, a vision of what could be and perhaps what should be.
NASA’S MEGA DRIVERS The heart of the NASA blueprint is defi ned by three identifi ed “mega-drivers” that are expected to shape the future of aviation over the next 20 to 40 years. These three major “mega-drivers” are expected to shape the future of aviation around the world. The fi rst driver is that signifi cant growth in air travel will
continue, especially in Asia. Secondly, climate change issues and global resource sustainability will become greater factors aff ecting operational costs and the logistics of migrating to alternate (greener) fuels. Thirdly, new technologies will have a major positive impact upon all facets of aviation from design and manufacturing to operations. This gives us a nice, clear set of comprehensive drivers from which to plan for the future. We must give credit to NASA for taking a strategic view of an industry that does not like to change unless it absolutely must.
MEGA DRIVER 1 — SUPPORTING GROWTH IN AIR TRAVEL
The aviation industry has performed admirably while supporting expanding air travel throughout the world. Companies have grown their supply chains to support increased production rates of new aircraft, along with fi nding novel ways to reach aftermarket customers with spare parts and services anywhere on the globe. Aerospace/ aviation stands as one of the shining examples of how global supply chains can support its customers (reasonably) well and wherever needed. However, the U.S. has simply not done all that it could
do to facilitate the increase in air travel. Our hub airports are mostly constrained, making it diffi cult to add more fl ights. This has a negative impact on international travelers
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(and cargo) from reaching the U.S. in a cost-competitive manner. As demand increases, this one factor has the ability to strangle the U.S.’s global competition. Even though the U.S. is considered a low-growth mature aviation market, it is imperative that the Federal/state/local governments invest more in the aged, constrained and obsolete transportation infrastructure. This infrastructure, built primarily to solve YESTERDAY’S needs, will not compete in today’s air transport environment. As an example, if the U.S. would like more tourists from
the Asia-Pacifi c region in the next 20 years, we need to make sure that we can add more airport and air traffi c capacity to key airports to attract such visitors. We need to make it attractive for visitors to travel here easily, and make the expensive journey as painless as possible. The U.S. must “compete” for these visitors as tourists today and a multitude of attractive options all around the world. The lure of the U.S. is showing some tarnish and competition for their dollars is intense. NextGen will certainly help in managing air traffi c more
effi ciently and support some growth but much more is needed. Re-thinking the traveling experience and fi nding ways to streamline it would be a great start. This means not only NextGen, but also in how we design modern airports. One example is cargo shipping to and from airports. This activity is necessary but it impacts the vehicular traffi c volumes and heavy wear and tear on the local roads, which leads to local opposition to any expansion eff orts, etc. If NASA is serious about providing solutions to support
air travel growth, it needs to help address the impact of our old aviation and transportation infrastructure, while garnering public support for the same expansion of air travel infrastructure.
MEGA DRIVER 2 — GLOBAL CLIMATE ISSUES, SUSTAINABILITY AND ENERGY TRANSITION
With the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) inheriting the global aviation issue related to CO2 emissions from the European Union, we are in the early stages of a potentially more comprehensive approach to how aircraft emissions will be managed and taxed. Aviation accounts for about 2.5 percent of global CO2 emissions and 13 percent of all CO2 emissions from the transportation sector. Aviation is the seventh-largest source of CO2 emissions
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