Africa Mainline passenger performance
generally very simplistic, there is only limited scope for the installation of complex train control, signalling and electrification systems. This means that track systems will remain the largest supplier sector in the African market, with a É1.83bn, or 33.8%, share of overall spending.
Rolling stock
market by 2017 compared with 3% in 2012. With new light rail systems already open in Casablanca and Rabat in Morocco, and Algiers and Oran in Algeria, Northern Africa dominates rapid transit usage figures with 98% of 3.2 billion passenger-km found in this region in 2012. Despite the opening of new lines in Morocco and proposed extensions to Cairo Metro, its share will fall to 90% of an expected increase to 5.3 billion passenger-km in 2017 with Sub- Saharan Africa claiming a 10% share. This will increase by 48.3% per annum as new systems get off the ground, with networks in Lagos, Nigeria, and Addis Abada, Ethiopia, notable contributors. However, this sector remains very small compared with other regions of the world.
Inevitably such intensive growth will
correspond with strong prospects for suppliers. Indeed SCI says Africa’s railway technology and services market is currently worth É3.6bn per year and projects that this will increase by 10.2% annually to reach É5.4bn in 2017. With very limited manufacturing
capacity throughout the continent, countries will depend on imports. This is potentially attractive for European suppliers suffering from a slowdown in traditional markets as well as Asian players looking to increase exports. Renewal, maintenance and after-sales services currently have a 62% share of
Africa’s existing railway technology and services market is worth É3.6bn per year and is projected to increase by 10.2% annually to reach É5.4bn in 2017.
the market. However, this is set to be matched by new development, upgrade and OEMs courtesy of 17.7% annual growth for a 49% share of the market by 2017. Conventional railways will be responsible for 91.7%, or É4.95bn, of this spend, while high-speed in Morocco will account for É155m, or 2.8%, and urban transit É235m, or 4.3%. As African freight operations are
Market development by mode of transport
SCI says the market for rolling stock will experience steady but moderate growth. The market is expected to grow by 50% from ƒ2.04bn in 2012 to ƒ3.01bn by 2017. However, overall fleet sizes, apart from electric locomotives, will experience very minor growth with the emphasis on replacing life-expired equipment rather than expansion. The greatest procurement will be of
freight wagons with annual orders set to grow by 74% to around 4000 per year in 2017. The market for emus on conventional railways is expected to grow by 11.7% by 2017, mainly fuelled by developments in South Africa. Dmu orders are expected to increase by 6.4% compared with 2012. Orders for diesel locomotives are also expected to remain strong at ƒ825m in 2017 with each region responsible for at least ƒ120m of orders. Electric locomotive market share remains low in a global context with growth only likely in South Africa which has 90% of the total fleet. The passenger coach market will similarly grow to ƒ325m in 2017. However, expenditure on rapid transit vehicles is expected to fall. North American manufacturers EMD and in particular GE, which has a 49% market share, have been the largest suppliers of diesel locomotives in the past few years, but Chinese companies are expected to increase their presence in the market.
Indeed, this is a trend that is expected in the other market segments. Chinese companies, supported by financing and technology agreements that have already been negotiated with domestic governments, are in a particularly strong position to boost their international order books and extract yet more of Africa’s growing wealth. The African railway renaissance then is set to have a distinctly Chinese flavour. IRJ
The complete study, which includes detailed breakdowns of current and future prospects in certain market segments, and statistics and outlines of specific railway projects, is available at
www.sci.de
IRJ July 2013 20
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